Haven't done one of these in a while - KK no Ace rainbow flop fold.

TimM · #1 10-19-2005, 09:41 PM

Playing 20/40 for the first time today.

Party Poker 20.00/40.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 1 folds, MP2 3-bets, 2 folds, Button caps, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, Button 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero folds [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

The possibility of my outs being either unclean or in their hands, and that they might go to war on the turn, making it too expensive to keep drawing, led me to fold.

#2 10-19-2005, 10:25 PM

I think this is pretty dreadful, but that is an ugly board.

elindauer · #3 10-20-2005, 01:21 AM

Wow. Can it ever be right to fold both an overpair AND an OESD on the flop? HUGE laydown.

Let's think about some math. Sometimes you are up against AK and drawing to a few outs for 1/2 the pot. Almost dead. For the sake of argument, let's assume that you are actually totally dead.

In this case, calling the flop costs you 1.5 BB.

Other times, you are up against queens and jacks and are folding a TEN out draw. Oops. How much does a fold cost you? Well, you're going to get there about 1/3 of the time by the river, 1/3 of 12.5 BB is over 4 BB, but you have to pay 1 BB for it, and you lose to a redraw 20% of the time or so... in this case, folding is, say, a 2 BB mistake.

The turn is going to look similar, so if you can call on the flop, you'll probably be corrct to call the turn bet as well by the same logic. (Note that I am ignoring your suggestion that the players are going to go to war on the turn. I find this unlikely unless they both hold AK)

If it's say, aces and a set, it's a little more complicated with the various draws and redraws. Let's ignore this for now because I don't think it's going to matter.

Incorrect fold is twice as painful as an incorrect call. Do you think someone holding AK is twice as likely as the possibility of two lower sets? There are only 8 combinations of AK with your 2 kings removed, but 18 combinations of pairs that have made a set on this board...

edit: just realized there are only 9 combos of set pairs. That actually makes it pretty close, maybe slightly leaning toward a fold. If you like, read the rest of my original post...

... and another 6 (aces) that might play like this while we have a pretty live draw in a big pot. We need 2 players to have pairs and not AK, but even then, I don't think it's that close. It's probably about even money that folding is right, but an incorrect fold is more more costly than an incorrect call. Make the call and profit 1 SB.

Good luck.
Eric

#4 10-20-2005, 01:36 AM

check the flop, some reads would be nice.

tonysoldier · #5 10-20-2005, 01:55 AM

Don't check the flop. I think you played this hand correctly. You can not trust someone with QQ to slow down on the turn. I don't even really think it's that close. But I hate calling multiple raises that are drawing dead a high percentage of the time like the plague ... so.

TimM · #6 10-20-2005, 01:57 AM

I made a fold very much like this once before, about 200,000 hands ago. That time, I would have chopped with the other two kings.

As this hand turned out, all of my outs were tainted. Kings would lose unless the board paired too, while aces and nines chopped. This is the kind of thing I was worried about.

The only problem is, I actually had the best hand. I didn't know at the time, but the PF capper/flop 3-bettor was some kind of maniac with Kh8h. The middle guy had AQ. Bizarre hand.

tonysoldier · #7 10-20-2005, 01:57 AM

If you hit your K you need to hit again unless you're up against exactly qq and jj, and even then you can't bet and no one else will. If you hit your ace you either chop or get no action. If you hit your 9, you can't even give action because there's still a high chance that you're beat. If you are ahead, again, no action. I can not possibly imagine calling here, it just seems so pointless.

TimM · #8 10-20-2005, 01:57 AM

No reads, new limit, new table near the end of my session.

#9 10-20-2005, 01:59 AM

What hands do you beat when someone 3 bets you and another caps?

Assuming these are standard players

elindauer · #10 10-20-2005, 02:07 AM

Ha. Don't feel too bad. Even if you call flop and turn you may end up folding unimproved on the river anyways. Call next time since it's a) close, b) rare, and c) painful emotionally to be wrong.

good luck.
eric