Pop quiz

[elindauer]

Here's a simple test of your poker logic. This kind of thing happens all the time. Do you know the answer?


You have bottom pair and you are facing a bet on the turn in a heads up pot. You think you are most likely behind, but of course you aren't sure.

You decide it'll probably take 2 pair to win. The pot is just big enough that, with your implied odds, you can barely call if you plan to fold unimproved. You are getting the proper odds to draw, but just barely.

You are just getting ready to call when you realize that you have some doubt about whether or not you are losing. You think there's an outside chance your opponent is bluffing. If you call the turn, you decide that you're going to be forced to call a river bet unimproved.

What's your action?

[KidPokerX]

can i raise?

[TightIsRight]

You fold. Your effective odds have been reduced by the fact that you will be calling two big bets, not one. Now, you are putting in two big bets, but your chances of winning have only gone up slightly by what you’ve just “realized” about the slight possibility that he’s bluffing.

For example: While before you made this realization you were putting in one bet with about a 11% chance of winning, now you’re putting in two bets with (say) an 16% chance of winning. This slight increase of times you take down the pot does not make up for putting in another bet in a heads-up situation.

I’m pretty sure that this is right, but could be more clearly explained by someone else.

[TightIsRight]

Also, when he’s bluffing, you’re not going to collect 2 bets on the end.

Where's the raise button?
Obvious raise.

[TightIsRight]

[ QUOTE ]
Where's the raise button?
Obvious raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please elaborate on the reasons why this is obvious?

[Nick C]

I voted "call."

If there's about an 11 percent chance I'll improve to the best hand and about a 10 percent chance I already have the best hand, I don't want to fold the turn, getting 7:1 or so.

I'll deal with the river when I get to it. Besides, if my opponent is bluffing, he might not fire again on the river.

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you please elaborate on the reasons why this is obvious?

[/ QUOTE ]

you might take the pot down now, you can hopefully get a free showdown UI, or you might be able to get an extra bet on the river if you do improve

Edit: this assumes you are in late position

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
can i raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you see this listed as an option? Assume this player 3-bets everything he bets on the turn.

-Eric

[TightIsRight]

Does your reasoning change if you interpret "outside chance" as about 5% like I did instead of 10%?

Of course, according to Harrington there's ALWAYS a 10% chance someone is bluffing. Nonetheless, my question stands.

Edit: my other edit didn't make sense