Losing runs

[ron8]

Does anybody know of any work carried out on the following:

An average to good player at middle stakes hold'em can expect to run bad, ie, Good starting cards missing the flop, bad beats and rubbish cards, infact the works. I know such runs are inevitable but can they be quantified in the following way:
QUITE BAD,BAD AND VERY BAD.

I would be very glad for any help with this
Regards
Ron

[Nightwish]

Yes, it's possible to quantify all of this. But first you have to tell us exactly what you're looking for. That is, how many BB down are we talking about? Over how many hands?

[Emperor]

Bad = You played 2000 hands today and you got cold decked and only saw 10% of your flops, and of those you only won 30% (if you don't suck at poker like me, this will only happen once a week)

Quite Bad = You played 30K hands this month and you are down 250-300BB, you moved down limits and are still running bad (If you don't suck at poker like me, this will happen once every 6-12mos or so)

David Ross (April Fools, I'm rich as hell) tilting, cold calling, setting money on fire bad = losing 550BB down ward spiral dropping 2 levels just to eek out a positive month and relearn the game from scratch. (If you dont suck at poker like me, then you will experience this once or twice a lifetime)


I may be off a lil, but I'm prolly close..

Disclaimer: I suck at poker.

[TaintedRogue]

First, we'll assume you have 300x BB as a bankroll.
Bad: -75 BB
Quite bad: -150 BB
Very bad: -225 BB

[Justin A]

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First, we'll assume you have 300x BB as a bankroll.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would we assume that?

[TaintedRogue]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First, we'll assume you have 300x BB as a bankroll.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would we assume that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because someone with a 300BB bankroll, who does not take his profits from his bankroll (until he has over 500BB), should not lose his bankroll, if he is a good poker player.

[BoxTree]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First, we'll assume you have 300x BB as a bankroll.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would we assume that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because someone with a 300BB bankroll, who does not take his profits from his bankroll (until he has over 500BB), should not lose his bankroll, if he is a good poker player.

[/ QUOTE ]

And by "should not lose his bankroll" you mean "is unlikely to lose his bankroll."

With 300 BB, there's still a small (but not at all insignificant) chance that you can play perfectly and lose everything. 300 BB does not guarantee protection.

800 BB will probably give you at least a 99% chance that you won't lose it all. Please note that I have no statistics to back up this percentage.

[TaintedRogue]

I agree 100%. I can't prove it, other than to say: "I promise I'm not lying."

[highlife]

this is a good question for mason. why dont you pm him.

[DeeJ]

you think your gas prices suck? Ours are now at one pound per litre which translates to around $6.50 per US gallon. Mostly tax.