I cant win on Party Poker

[toots]

Thanks for the feedback.

You're right. I've been folding naked A3xx. I consider playing them in late position if at least the A is suited, but I've generally been folding if it's total rainbow/rags. My thought has been that I don't want to play for just half the pot, but then again, when I end up folding them all the time, I guess I'm playing for none of the pot.

Second: I've been working hard on table selection. I've been trying to stick with 10 seated tables where at least half the players have VP$IP > 40. More lately, I've been playing 6-7 handed tables where most of the other players are total fish, and I've had better luck there.

I'm also getting better at folding raggedy AAs, as nice as they might look.

At least some of the VP$IP, I still think represents poor cards. On Stars, where I play mainly $.05/.10, my VP$IP is hovering around 22 (after 3000-4000 hands).

[Beavis68]

- Went to Showdown - 31.12%
- Won $ at Showdown - 59.84% (this shows how small of pots I am winning to still be losing so much)
- Won when saw flop - 24%
- pf raise- 3%
- flop/turn/river agr factor 1.6/1.31/.97

[pipes]

[ QUOTE ]

- Went to Showdown - 31.12%
- Won $ at Showdown - 59.84% (this shows how small of pots I am winning to still be losing so much)
- Won when saw flop - 24%
- pf raise- 3%
- flop/turn/river agr factor 1.6/1.31/.97

[/ QUOTE ]

What limits? 3/6 has really tightened up.

[Beavis68]

.5/1 - I am a small timer.

[GooperMC]

You are not going to like this but it looks like your poor results are short term variance (I always hate when people tell me that).

The reason that I am saying that is your WtSD is a little bit low and so is you W$SD. Assuming that you are playing .5/1, 1/2, or 2/4 you are below average for both categories. If your WtSD was higher or your W$SD was lower I would say that you are chasing too much. However it looks like you are just on a bad run, maybe making a few to many crying calling on the river, but nothing too extreme.

I would suggest that you tight up a little bit on the river. Try to get W$SD up in the 60s. My stats looks close to your and even on really bad run's of card if I can keep my W$SD > 62 I usually don't do much worse then break even.

I think that every who plays at party has a love / hate relationship with the site. There are so many bad players that the swings are extreme.

[gergery]

Take my entire commentary with a giant grain of salt, since 1300 hands is no where close to significant. You could very well be playing perfectly and getting bad variance. That said, someone with your numbers long-term would generate the following commentary from me in my notes.

Note: my database is 10-20 with 470 players who’ve played 100 hands or more, so will be slightly different than your level, but from reviewing my 2-4 database in the past, I don’t think the #s will be too far off. Also, the number in parentheses at the end of the paragraph indicates what rank in my database your number would be.

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VPIP of 21%, pf raise- 3%

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Slightly too tight in loose games. Certainly not wrong and some players are successful in my database with these #s with a tight style. But in my opinion is somewhat less than optimal as you are leaving money on the table in your marginal hands if you play well postflop (hands like bare A3, 2356, QJTTss). The average for the winning players is ~25% (12% -- means only 12% of players are tighter than you). Note: selection bias may be over-inflating that 25%# tho.

PFR – low (26%). With a tight style you’d want this around 5-6%. Could also go up to ~10% with different style. You may not be raising enough in late position with strong hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Went to Showdown - 31.12%

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Very low. (6% -- 94% of players went to the showdown more frequently than you).

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Won $ at Showdown - 59.84% (this shows how small of pots I am winning to still be losing so much)

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Low (40%). Combined with, Went to Showdown, you may be folding marginal hands too soon. Or are staying in too long before folding.

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Won when saw flop - 24%

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Extremely low (4%). This has the single highest correlation with winrate, so you simply can’t be a winner with a number this low.

[ QUOTE ]
- flop/turn/river agr factor 1.6/1.31/.97

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop – very high (90%). Aggression is good, but you may be doing too much pushing not pulling with your monsters. Or too much semi-bluffing into fish with hands that don’t warrant it. My correlational analyses with 90+ pokertracker variables show “Won at Showdown when making Flop Bet” is 4th most important variable, so this is an important area to focus on.

Turn – high (78%). Same as flop, but much lesser extent since #s are typically higher here.

River – avg/low (40%) – Either you are taking lots of bad beats on the river, or you are over-aggressing your hands on flop/turn. Combined with Went/Won Showdown #s, you could be making bad folds on river since you’ve pounded the flop/turn to create big pots.

Conclusion: I would review your pokertracker hands lost specifically for the following, in order:
1) When you folded on river and were able to see others hands, was your fold correct?

2) Did you take lots of bad beats on the river card?

3) When you bet/raised on the flop and can see opponents cards in pokertracker, were those good bets knowing their cards?

4) When you bet/raised on the turn, should you have been trying to push or pull with that hand?

My notes on this player would say, 'overaggressive with weak values on flop/turn', can be bluffed at river", so i'd be calling you down on flop/turn, then betting the river.

Again, my comments are for if your numbers were long-run. In short run I can’t say if my comments apply or not to you particularly, but hopefully this gives you some places to look.

Hope that helps,
-- Greg

[toots]

Can't speak for the guy you're replying to, but it sure helped me, just reading that.

Thanks.

[Beavis68]

Thanks.

What is interesting is that i am up about 9BB/100 on UB with almost the same stats - but fewer hands. But I have been winning some monster pots - like 16-24BB pots 3-way. I can't do that on Party.

So I need to get to the showdown more often AND win more when I get there - sounds like a tough recipe.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
So I need to get to the showdown more often AND win more when I get there - sounds like a tough recipe.”

[/ QUOTE ]

No one said it was easy!

Seriously tho, 1300 hands * .21 VPIP *.31 went showdown is 85 hands to showdown. You won 58% or 49 hands. If you had won say 57 hands, your Won$SD& would be 67%, which is in the target zone. So if you could have identified just 8 hands out of the 273 (1300*.21) where you saw a flop, and changed your action from folding to winning at showdown, your numbers would reflect a different result. If you’d won just half the pot those 8 times and each pot was 8BBs, then 8*8*.5=32BB swing or net effect of 64BB, which would have moved your result from -4BB/100 to about +0.5BB/100

Add that to the money you’d have saved from being a little less aggressive and a) saving those bets when you folded, and b) encouraging more calls on monster hands, and your aggregate win rate might have been higher.

Again, the main take-way is that with only 49 or 57 hands won at showdown by far the biggest factor here is variance, so this is not a comment on your play.

The secondary takeaway is that if your numbers were true long term numbers, this analysis would give you some indication as to where to look for leaks, and why those leaks might indeed be leaks.

--Greg

[Mr_J]

Played my 1st 1k or so hands today (700 raked, cleared bonus). Ended up 20BB down before bonus. Max was 30BB down after a big dry spell and paying to see showdowns (on purpose, explanation below). Might've also been betting draws too hard for around an hr (I was in that 'half asleep' thing).

Feel comfy in the game, although I could probally be a little more aggressive on the flop when I hit and more passive when I'm only drawing (at least when I don't have a huge number of outs).

I wasn't playing perfectly, I wanted to see a showdown occasionally with a hand i should've folded, but I like to know the sort of behaviour to expect. What people are doing with what etc.

After I finish the other 2 party skin bonuses I have I'm going to move to 1/2 for a bit then 2/4. I'll do some reading (articles, posts, strategies etc) and read some books sometime during 2/4 or maybe 3/6 (I intend to move up quickly).

Think I'll wanna order more than just Zee since the shipping is $40 (I'm not gonna take an order where the products cost less than the shipping).

It'd be nice to have PTO to check out my stats, but that'd lead to analyzing and stressing over insignificant samples [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]