Hand from a tough session - advice?

[grb137]

Three to a royal flush - easy raise on third. By merely calling, you are screaming "I'm on a draw".

If you had done so, you would have had a much easier time representing trips when you paired your lady.

[beta1607]

Raising will also likely shut everyone out behind you unless you are against a monster and open you up to another bet from the original raiser. I think calling the completion is clearly the best choice on third with folding being a distant second.

[grb137]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising will also likely shut everyone out behind you

[/ QUOTE ]

And that's a bad thing?

[beta1607]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising will also likely shut everyone out behind you

[/ QUOTE ]

And that's a bad thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

With this hand I want to play a large multiway pot. Raising 3rd will likely make you play at large pot HU which is exactly what you do not want to do with a drawing hand.

[blumpkin22]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising will also likely shut everyone out behind you

[/ QUOTE ]

And that's a bad thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

With this hand I want to play a large multiway pot. Raising 3rd will likely make you play at large pot HU which is exactly what you do not want to do with a drawing hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand plays well heads up or multiway. I think this case is a clear raise, and if for some reason it still ends up multiway, that's fine too. Also, if you only raise here with a big pair, your play is too predictable.

Another thing to observe is that you are approximately even money (heads up) against hand the 9 has except for a big pair in the hole or rolled up trips.

Finally, folding this hand (on third) would be horrible poker.

[grb137]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising will also likely shut everyone out behind you

[/ QUOTE ]

And that's a bad thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

With this hand I want to play a large multiway pot. Raising 3rd will likely make you play at large pot HU which is exactly what you do not want to do with a drawing hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking that this hand is nothing more than a "drawing hand" is a really, really, really bad mistake.

This hand is strong multi-way AND/OR heads up. If you're not going to raise with a 3-to-royal flush against a 3 and a 9, then you ought not play at 10/20. JMHO.

[beta1607]

I am all for being agressive with these types of hands but I just don't think this is the right spot for it. I found this dicussion pretty interesting so I ran some numbers against possible holdings of the villan.


cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Qh Jh 190694 38.14 309281 61.86 25 0.01 0.381
Ks 9s Kc 309281 61.86 190694 38.14 25 0.01 0.619


Ah Qh Jh 239348 47.87 260621 52.12 31 0.01 0.479
Ks 9s 9c 260621 52.12 239348 47.87 31 0.01 0.521


Ah Qh Jh 279414 55.88 220378 44.08 208 0.04 0.559
Js 9s 4s 220378 44.08 279414 55.88 208 0.04 0.441

we are a little better than 60% favorite over a 2 spade straight draw.

I still think the best play here is to just call the completion.

Anyone else want to opine on this situation?

[lstream]

Beta - your numbers do a nice job of explaining why I decided to just call here. The two dead hearts diminished the value of the hand quite a bit in my opinion. If I had raised, it would have been interesting to see what would have happened when I hit the open queens.

[blumpkin22]

It's not just the percentages that matter (that much). Of course, his most likely hands are approximately 50-50 against our hand, some are worse, and very few have us in bad shape.

The fact that you take the lead changes the entire hand. You have significant fold equity against most players. He might throw his hand away on third, or on fifth, or you can take a free card if/when you want, etc.

Raise!

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]


Anyone else want to opine on this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

New word? Did you pick it up from AndyB earlier?