Odds for turning a pair into a set

Barry5 · #1 08-18-2005, 06:40 AM

I know the odds for 2 outs are 11/1 for making a set from a pocket pair from flop to river and 22/1 from turn to river but can anyone please advise what the odds are for 2 outs pre flop. I get to 4/1 but Dan Harrington seems to indicate in his book that it is 7/1.

Thanks.

Webster · #2 08-18-2005, 07:54 AM

Pot odds 3.5 to 1

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morello · #3 08-18-2005, 08:03 AM

This should go in the probability forum.

2 outs, 5 cards to come (ignores straights/flushes/opponent redraws, etc)

The calculation is quite simple. 50 unknown cards, 2 of which help us. So 1 - (48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48 * 45/47 * 44/46), which gives us a ~19.2% chance of happening. 4.2:1 or so.

Webster · #4 08-18-2005, 08:09 AM

47 unknown cards - there are 3 on the flop. Unless you know you have a pair BEFORE the flop and if so I don't think you need to calculate much as you know what your hand will look like.

morello · #5 08-18-2005, 08:13 AM

His original question asked: "but can anyone please advise what the odds are for 2 outs pre flop"

Perhaps my reading comprehension is poor, but I think he wants to know how often an underpair will turn into a set by the river. My calculation is correct.

Barry5 · #6 08-18-2005, 08:17 AM

Thanks and you have answered it perfectly for me. Apologies for posting in wrong place.

driller · #7 08-18-2005, 08:28 AM

Odds against making either a set, full house, or quads on the flop are 7.5065:1.

If you don't hit your set, then the odds against making it on the turn are 22.5:1 and then 22:1 on the river. The odds against of hitting in on the turn or the river are 10.9:1