Lies, damn lies, and statistics

[kyro]

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7. Realizing that I'm setting a personal OOTM record (homocidal)


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Homocidal, the tendency to kill gays? Yikes!

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I'm kidding, nice post. Enjoyable to read.

[sabre170]

This is one of my all-time favorite posts.
I wish I'd written it.
Well said.

[Irieguy]

"gays" is NOT the prefered nomenclature. Heterosexually impaired.... please.

[Dooner]

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The whole point of a bad streak is that it it not your poor play but the bad run of cards that is causing you to lose. Adjusting your game will not prevent bad streaks.

In fact one reason people look at stats and such like is to help distinguish between bad streaks and bad play.

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I totally agree with you on most bad streaks being a bad run at cards. However, unless you are a robot, everyone is human and will slip from time to time and play a weaker game than usuall. The problem I have with relying mainly on stats is that you might overlook your weakness, and blame it on the cards. So, when I hit a bad streak, I look at my game first and make sure that I am not slipping in one way or another. After that, if it is not something I can fix, I know it is just a bad luck streak and not a bad play streak.

But this is all besides the point. I personally do not like keeping all kinds of stats, but for some people it might really help their game. And for those, I say "Good for you". But, the original post was about not liking all the stats, and I agreed with him. Either way, the overall game of poker gets better as the players do. So do what you must to make your game top notch.

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[t_perkin]

I posted because the post I replied to suggested that a "bad run" could be fixed by adjusting ones game.
This suggests that by playing better you can avoid all bad runs. This is not the case.

Most posters on this forum, when they say they are having a "bad run" they mean a bad run of cards, not just playing badly.

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So, when I hit a bad streak, I look at my game first and make sure that I am not slipping in one way or another


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You should be analysing your game all the time, not just when you are running badly.

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The problem I have with relying mainly on stats is that you might overlook your weakness, and blame it on the cards.


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Stats don't lie. If you misinterpret them then that is a problem.
Nobody pretends that (ROI, RoR and ITM%) stats tell you *why* you are losing/winning, only whether you are or not.
They also tell you how likely it is for something to occur. If you play 250+ SNGs a week then you are likely to see long losing streaks. Understanding the statistics gives you the confidence NOT to tinker with your game when there is nothing wrong with it.

It is just an important part of understanding the game of poker.

Tim

[Irieguy]

"understanding statistics gives you the confidence to NOT tinker with your game when there is nothing wrong."

Tim, I think that's the most profound comment in this thread so far. The hard part is managing the information while you are accumulating a large enough sample to gain your confidence.

I think it's clear that you need several hundred SNGs before you "know," statistically, how well you are doing. But I think you can figure out whether or not you are winning much sooner than that. Do you usually have the best hand when significant portions of your stack go into the pot? If the answer is yes, then you are winning. You are winning even more if the few times your money goes in with the lesser hand you were there first and there was a significant chance that your opponnent would fold a better hand. (By the way, I'm pretty sure you can beat SNGs without ever bluffing. You can just beat them more by bluffing appropriately.)

Perhaps a log of significant hands would be a more helpful tool than a spreadsheet.

Play the right way,
Irieguy

[Cry Me A River]

I can't help but think this is no different from any athelete who takes his game seriously - If you're going to be a pro or world class athelete in this day and age you pretty much have to be watching film a substantial amount or time, you pretty much have to be on a very specialised diet, you pretty much have to be scrutinising the technical aspects of your game at the most minute level, you pretty much have to be prepared to have a coach tell you how you need to change your form. I don't expect any of these are particularly 'fun' but they're essential to being competitive.

Which of course is completely different from a guy who just plays pick-up games in the park. There's a world of difference between "casual" and "serious" in anything. There's nothing wrong with wanting to take it a lot less seriously - You wouldn't be the first "athelete" to retire at the peak of his career.


I'm sure no track star likes to be told they're running "wrong" or that they've been nowehere near their personal best in the last 4 meets. But how else are you going to improve if you don't learn and build on what you've done before? I think the mistake here is not the use of statistics, it's their misuse. You shouldn't be using the stats to beat yourself up over a bad run* you should be using them to keep solidifying and improving your game.

Sure, any team that goes on a 10 game loosing skid is going to get down on itself, but any coach in the world is going to tell you the only way to get out of it is to emphasise and build on the positive; Keep it simple, don't try to do too much and make sure you get the fundamentals right then the rest will come naturally.



*You can't tell me when you weren't tracking your stats that you never got upset when you were on a bad run...

[Doubling12]

You should read John Feeney's Inside the Poker Mind. Since reading that book, I keep a detailed record on everything *except* P+L. The game is way more fun now, and (I think!) I play better for it. It is ridiculous to, for example, wimp out on a clear-as-day resteal opportunity because if you bubble again, your ITM% will drop to a new low. I review hand histories and keep a lot of notes, that's it...

[Dan Mezick]

CryMe:

There is a new service at www.PokerCoaching.com that is related to what you are saying here, check it out.