I spew

#1 10-31-2005, 06:46 PM

Villain is 22/9/2.2

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 folds, CO calls, 1 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.00 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls.

River: (15.00 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 17.00 BB.

I was bet/folding the river

Lurkmaster Flex · #2 10-31-2005, 06:51 PM

I like all but the river bet, no set or straight is folding to 1 bet on the river. You liable to see a check behind if he doesn't have the ace of hearts. KJ hearts im assuming?

mperich · #3 10-31-2005, 07:18 PM

Spew? I dont get it. Looks good.

-Mike

#4 10-31-2005, 07:45 PM

I dont like the riverbet. Clarkmeister doesnt make sense in view of the action on the turn.

josh1122 · #5 10-31-2005, 10:30 PM

Looks fine to me. I bet the river, but I'm not sure its right.

mex78753 · #6 10-31-2005, 10:54 PM

I'm extremely aggressive but I dont really like the turn 3 bet. It seems clear villain had a flush draw or a big slow played pair pre-flop. So its' KK, AA, or a flush draw. I'm not much on math but it seems to me that theres more flush draw possibilities than KK or AA.

Theres also a small chance he slowplayed QQ and he's got a set now.

river line seems to be ok if you play on bet/folding.

josh1122 · #7 10-31-2005, 10:56 PM

We 3bet the turn because we are likely ahead and our chances to imporve on the river if behind are high. We will win this pot much more often than 50%.

adamstewart · #8 10-31-2005, 11:19 PM

Preflop: standard

Flop: excellent

Turn: Your 3-bet is a must. Obviously you call the cap.

River:

Given the turn action, villain most likely has one of two hands:

(i) An overplayed lesser set (i.e. 77 or 22)

(ii) A made flush.

If he has a lessor set, he'll still call your river bet for the showdown. However, if you check the river, he'll check it through as well. Most importantly, if he has 77 or 22, he doesn't have a flush because both the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are on the board. Further, given your turn aggression there is next to nil chance he's going to bluff-raise this river.

If he has a flush, depending on how high his kicker is, he'll either raise or call if you bet the river. He's not folding. If you check the river, he's betting his flush more than not, and you will call.

Given the overall action, I'd estimate there's roughly a 50%/50% chance of distribition between villain having the lower set vs. a flush.

As we see above, half the time we bet the river we'll get called with a lessor hand (win 1 bet). The other half we'll lose to a better hand, or fold if raised on the river (lose1 bet). NET = 0.5(1) + 0.5(-1) = 0 bets

If we check, half the time a worse hand is checking through (0 bets won or lost). The other half, villain will bet and we'll call with a lessor hand (down 1 bet).
NET = 0.5(0) + 0.5(-1) = -0.5 bets.

Thus, betting the river is the better play.

Note: I am disregarding QQ as a possible holding since CO didn't 3-bet preflop. I am also not including the times villain has the likes of an overplayed two-pair like 9,7 or Q,9 - as these will be rare occurences.

In conclusion, whether you meant to or not, you played this hand perfectly. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Adam

#9 11-01-2005, 06:20 AM

Maybe I should stop covering my ass with an "I spew" title. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Because I was fairly sure about my play, except the riverbet. I like the annalysis by adamstewart about why betting the river is better than check/calling.

FWIW Villain showed T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and MHING

Thanks all for the replies.