Ditch this draw or play?

obviously if you are already all-in, you aren't concerned about whether or not I am going to call and you are just hoping that if I do, you make your draw

that wasn't what I meant - yes, I was talking about the latter, and I would hope I am more often in the second category as well [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.

If I flopped trips here, and simply checked the flop, I would bet you are not going to go all in with a draw (or would you?), and at that point, if you do go all-in, I am not in for a fortune and can let the hand go. On the other hand, if you make a pot sized bet, I can call it and see what the turn brings. If it brings a spade or a straight card, I can lay down the hand if I feel it helped you, and if it was a brick, I can try to push you out of the pot, or at least make you all in with only one card to go. No, I probably won't be raking a monster pot (unless your straight/flush also gives me a boat and you miss that), but I will still be there the next hand if I lose a little bit.

I don't have a problem going for the throat when it is called for, but when I am not sure of myself, I will err on the side of caution in a tourney. I would rather prey on the weaker fish - that is what they are there for, and I can acknowledge that sometimes there is another shark in my pond, and there is no point chewing each other up - I will let him nibble at me until I can bite back and rip a chunk out of his side.

Different outlooks, different strategies... No, I am probably not aggressive enough overall, but I often win the tourneys in which I am involved, usually because the overly aggressive players think I am weak, and they give their chips to me.

I am not saying a player like yourself would make that kind of mistake often, although we both know it happens, but there are enough terrible players out there who WILL make that mistake often enough to make my style very successful. Once I am out of the mid stack range, my game can change considerably, if I want it to - but that depends on the table and players at that table, and their relative stack sizes.

[DireWolf]

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however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.


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That is way to weak tight. I don't want to sound like a dick, but if you are going to play weak-tightish and try and let aggressive players bluff off their chips to you, you are going to have to make more marginal calls against these players. QQ on this board is nowhere near a marginal call, and the fact that you would fold the second nuts here makes me think you will not go deep in tournys often.

[Dave D]

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I've said repeatedly I don't believe both will call a push. I'd put it at about 95% 1 calls, and maybe at best 30% both call


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First you say we have no FE. But now you say 5% of the time both will fold. Thats FE.

Second, where are you getting these numbers. You keep saying
that party players are so bad. i agree, so i think if UTG+2 has a hand that can call our push, he will call a lot higher percentage of pushes with UTG as well.



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You're missing the point. I still think we have little, if any fold equity, to the point where it's not something I'm thinking about. That's what I was trying to say.

I don't think A9o (that paired his 9) will call a push. I DO think he will call our call, getting 3 to 1. Other draws (gutshots, even worse than hero's OESDs that don't realize what they should be doing here) will call a raise. They will NOT want to call a push.


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I could also be *completely wrong* about UTG and he just dumps his A6o.


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This is the main reason you can not call. Lets look at you equity on the flop compared to the turn, if a blank hits.
i won't include UTG, but if you check it out you will find that whether UTG has an overpair doesn't really matter much to you.


FLOP:
Board: Js Qs 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.1717 % 47.17% 00.00% { Ts7s }
Hand 2: 52.8283 % 52.83% 00.00% { QQ-JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, Q9o, J9o }

TURN:

Board: Js Qs 7h 5c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.2490 % 29.25% 00.00% { Ts7s }
Hand 2: 70.7510 % 70.75% 00.00% { QQ-JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AQo, KQo, QJo, Q9o, J9o }


So, you have to be totally sure UTG will push, or you won't be getting correct odds on the turn when when UTG+2 makes a large bet. Combine that with the 5% or so FE you have and i think you need to push.

For a call to be correct, you have to get remaining players to call AND UTG to push. I don't think this happens enough to not push here.

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No, see my earlier calculation. All I need is UTG+1, SB, or BB to call the 200 for it to be even money. Nevermind what they do on the turn/river. If we assume villian has QJ, hero is 34% to win if the turn is a brick, even if you drop that to 29%, it's pretty close on the turn. 200 (pot on the flop)+200 (UTG+2)+200 (your call)+200 (one caller)= 800. Villian can push for 575, at worst giving us to call 575 to win 1375 giving us 2.4:1 which is EV.

I think the chance of villian doing something other than pushing on the turn is also a reason to flat call. Say villian bets 400, that gives hero 3 to 1 to call, +EV, and hero can fold the river if he doesn't make his hand. At this stage in the tourney, 400 isn't terrible. I think this consideration outweighs the FE consideration.


Again, by pushing you make EVERYONE fold except the OR, by calling you open it up for ALLLL THESE OTHER OVERCALLS. We've established that hero will go broke on this hand by pushing (if he loses), you MIGHT AS WELL MAXIMIZE the amount you could win and/or leave yourself a chance of getting out.

edit: The key here is that I'm playing the hand for all my chips either way, pushing or calling until I have nothing left. But the second way allows me to survive, and possibly get even more money if I make my hand.

[illegit]

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however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.


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You're going to play QQ slowly on THIS flop?! WTF. Give me a Q72 rainbow flop and play it slow as you want, but this is probably the worst possible flop to slowplay QQ on. Just really, really weak-bad.

[Dave D]

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however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.


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That is way to weak tight. I don't want to sound like a dick, but if you are going to play weak-tightish and try and let aggressive players bluff off their chips to you, you are going to have to make more marginal calls against these players. QQ on this board is nowhere near a marginal call, and the fact that you would fold the second nuts here makes me think you will not go deep in tournys often.

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Agreed. I'm pushing QQ as UTG+1 basically every time. Or at least raising some, and calling a push from OR.

Let me put it another way. I meant that I would check that to a player like yourself, one who might be overly aggressive, because I know you are going to put a lot of money in the pot if I let you, one way or another - whether you have a hand or not, because you either want to steal the pot or because you have a semi playable hand. In a different case, if I know the other players involved will just flat call and if I know they are weak(ish) I will put money in the pot expecting them to call.

Perhaps you misunderstood what I said, or perhaps you misunderstood my intent.

I would slow play QQQ against an aggressive player because I know he will put his money in the pot without my asking, and I would lead with this hand against a weaker player (because the weaker player is either going to check anyway, or fold).

9 times out of 10 I will NOT fold QQQ if I check and you go all in here - I guess the first time I should have worded it that it gave me the option to fold after seeing your bet, but my point was that most people likely would not go all in on a draw (unless I am really underestimating most players out there - even the hyper aggressive ones), and I am giving myself a free (or less expensive) card on the turn, and it will be enough to no longer give you odds at your draw. I know I have the nuts at that point, BUT, if you are willing to push all in, it either means you are trying to steal or you have a hand you believe in, and it would be a personality call (based on my read of you) at that point, for me, as to whether or not I need to lay down my hand.

I know when to make a good laydown. Call me weak if you want, but as I said, I finish at or near the top in most tourneys I play in.

edit: please note I am still learning and you may have a lot more experience than me, but my style works, for now, and even though I need to learn when and where to be more aggressive, I will continue to win more often than I lose with my style of play because it defeats so many other styles of play.

[Kirkrrr]

You're right, you would be pretty much pot committed. I assumed you have about t1500, like on Pstars. In that case, push the river if he checks and all looks safe.

As far as checking the turn and betting the river, all I can say is that it works against 90% of average opponents. Usually, they are drawing too or have very marginal hands, otherwise they would re-raise the flop and bet the turn/river. So when you bet the river, they just let it go thinking you might be bluffing but not willing to risk their whole stack to find out for sure.

Kirk

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however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.


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You're going to play QQ slowly on THIS flop?! WTF. Give me a Q72 rainbow flop and play it slow as you want, but this is probably the worst possible flop to slowplay QQ on. Just really, really weak-bad.

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please see my response above as to when I would slow play this hand (I would do so against a hyper aggressive player because I know he would bet into me) - the YOU in the other post was in reference to the poster specifically addressing the other post, ie. I was talking about my laying a trap for the hyper aggressive player who THINKs I am weak

[illegit]

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however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.


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You're going to play QQ slowly on THIS flop?! WTF. Give me a Q72 rainbow flop and play it slow as you want, but this is probably the worst possible flop to slowplay QQ on. Just really, really weak-bad.

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please see my response above as to when I would slow play this hand (I would do so against a hyper aggressive player because I know he would bet into me) - the YOU in the other post was in reference to the poster specifically addressing the other post, ie. I was talking about my laying a trap for the hyper aggressive player who THINKs I am weak

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I understand what you said. And it's bad. Against any multiway field (which this is) and this flop you must bet to protect your hand on this draw heavy board and hope a LAG raises, or, alternatively you can check-raise. Neither really qualifies as slow-playing. Slowplaying (i.e. check-call) here is pretty terrible (and not in a 'oh that's your style' way... objectively terrible).

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however, if I was the UTG player, I am one who would likely fold to your all in move here if I only had trips - but then, I wouldn't have put myself in that situation in the first place - not in that manner - because I would be playing QQQ slowly here and letting YOU be the aggressor.


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You're going to play QQ slowly on THIS flop?! WTF. Give me a Q72 rainbow flop and play it slow as you want, but this is probably the worst possible flop to slowplay QQ on. Just really, really weak-bad.

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please see my response above as to when I would slow play this hand (I would do so against a hyper aggressive player because I know he would bet into me) - the YOU in the other post was in reference to the poster specifically addressing the other post, ie. I was talking about my laying a trap for the hyper aggressive player who THINKs I am weak

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I understand what you said. And it's bad. Against any multiway field (which this is) and this flop you must bet to protect your hand on this draw heavy board and hope a LAG raises, or, alternatively you can check-raise. Neither really qualifies as slow-playing. Slowplaying (i.e. check-call) here is pretty terrible (and not in a 'oh that's your style' way... objectively terrible).

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Again, I am talking about when a hyper aggressive player is acting directly after me, because I know he will bet, so I am not worried about the rest of the field when I KNOW the hyper aggressive player will bet immediately after I check - I am talking about a very specific situation here, as I have been all along. So, yes, I am talking about check-raising the hyper aggressive player.

Add to this that the whole topic of this discussion is that most people here would push all in with a draw just goes to prove that my betting to protect my hand would NOT work against a hyper aggressive player anyway, but the size of his bet MIGHT help me identify his hand, AND my check-raise (or push) might completely thin the field to just the two of us.

edit: I guess we were talking semantics - my definition of slowplaying didn't match yours, sorry