River bluff raise with 4 flush

JinX11 · #1 04-21-2005, 09:39 PM

Haven't started a thread in Small Stakes for a while; I hope this is an interesting hand for discussion. I think I make this play once in a hundred thousand hands, which is another way of saying "I've never made this play before." A variation on Clarkmeister's Theorem, the question is simply should I make it more often?

Villian seems to be TAG (12.5/6.5/4.5) through 4 orbits. Has only shown down winners. I have not seen him make any tough folds on the river nor have I seen him make any check-raises. For some reason, I felt his turn check-raise was a bluff or semi-bluff at the three-frush. I felt compelled at taking a shot on the end, folding to a three-bet, obviously.

Good (occasional) move or bad move?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 5 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, BB folds, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB folds.

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

Pokey · #2 04-21-2005, 09:50 PM

Ironically, I had just finished rereading this part in TOP when I saw this post.

Since I'm just a big dumb muttonhead m'self, I'll quote the expert himself:

"Once he puts in an initial bet, an average player will call your raise almost every time. Therefore, you certainly should not try a bluff raise....Tough players, on the other hand, will frequently come out betting, but they are capable of folding and not paying you off if you raise. Therefore, a bluff raise has some chance against them."

- The Theory of Poker, David Sklansky, page 204.

The reason I applaud your end play here is not that it was "the right move" but that it was the right move GIVEN YOUR OPPONENT. Against a weaker player, this would have been pure foolishness. Against a TAG, this was a very savvy, very dangerous, and very effective play.

Well done!

Webster · #3 04-21-2005, 10:49 PM

Why did you back down on the Turn - this calls for a reraise.

His aggression numbers are meaningless with 4 orbits.

Personally I think raising on the river was a bad play. What did you gain - you are either way ahead and he will fold to a raise or you are way behind and you will need to call a reraise.

One way you get no more of his money - the other you play into his hands and YOU pay extra.

if he has a flush, he's not going to fold and you lose another bet. If he does not have a flush he will fold and you win anyway.

JinX11 · #4 04-21-2005, 11:21 PM

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Why did you back down on the Turn - this calls for a reraise.

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Hmmm...TPTK was looking pretty pale at the time. Re-raising into a paired, three-flush board would be tough for me here.

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Personally I think raising on the river was a bad play. What did you gain - you are either way ahead and he will fold to a raise or you are way behind and you will need to call a reraise.

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I definitely don't know if I agree here. First, I wouldn't call a reraise on the river. Second, I think a smaller flush has a difficult time calling here. If you're not holding at least a Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], a laydown has to cross to your mind to a river raise.

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One way you get no more of his money - the other you play into his hands and YOU pay extra.

if he has a flush, he's not going to fold and you lose another bet. If he does not have a flush he will fold and you win anyway.

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That's not the point in the river raise here - this isn't a value bet scenario. I doubt seriously I have the best hand at showdown; I'm not looking to get more of his money. I wanting him to fold a small flush or a pair higher than my 10s (e.g., JJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]); . This is a bluff vs. pot odds scenario.

littlejohn · #5 04-22-2005, 12:13 AM

My impression on this hand is that SB has a 3, but no spades and played his hand wrong. This is an extremely common play at 2/4 - slow play to turn and cr.

That being the case - it would appear your river raise bluffed him off trips - and he bet the river hoping you'd fold a weak spade.

Either that or you are correct, he made a small flush on the turn and your river bluff raise pushed him off a smaller flush.

Either way - I am extremely surprised this river got folded, and that should be a note if you observe other situations similar to this.

JinX11 · #6 04-22-2005, 01:29 AM

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My impression on this hand is that SB has a 3, but no spades and played his hand wrong. This is an extremely common play at 2/4 - slow play to turn and cr.

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I cant think of a hand with a 3 in it that I'd call a UTG+2 open raise with no callers to me. And thru 4 orbits, he does seem to be a more of a TAG than I am.

Afterwards, I got to thinking maybe he decided to slowplay something like JJ or QQ. And if he's a TAG that's also a 2+2'er, he probably knows Clarkmeister's Theorem, so a river bet is automatic from him once the 4th spade shows.

Webster · #7 04-22-2005, 07:08 AM

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I wanting him to fold a small flush or a pair higher than my 10s

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Well - if he folds a small flush or trips to 2 bet he's a bozo and at that level I can't see it happening.

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I think a smaller flush has a difficult time calling here.

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I see ANY flush calling anything. It's 2/4 for God's sake LOL

Just my opinion though. I still think raising the Turn would have given you enough info and you could have won it right there.

I don'tthink he had anything the entire hand. If he is an aggressive player he would not be calling if he had Trips - I'm thinking he he did not believe you have anything and was testing YOU. You showed him that you didn't have THAT much so he thought he would try to get YOU off the pot by being aggressive - but it was to late.

CallMeIshmael · #8 04-22-2005, 12:06 PM

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Well - if he folds a small flush or trips to 2 bet he's a bozo and at that level I can't see it happening....
I see ANY flush calling anything. It's 2/4 for God's sake LOL

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Did you not read the read. This person is a TAG. Most TAGs are capable of toughish folds.

PS: Jinx, its probably best to leave the action as "hero raises"... the fact that I know he folds, probably makes me like the raise more than if I didnt know what he did.

JinX11 · #9 04-22-2005, 12:34 PM

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PS: Jinx, its probably best to leave the action as "hero raises"... the fact that I know he folds, probably makes me like the raise more than if I didnt know what he did.

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Good point. Sorry about that! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

In retrospect, I'm not sure that I like my play here. If I get the numbers right here, I'm betting that Villian will lay down his hand here about one time in five (9.5BB when I put in 2BB - is this right?). This probably isn't the case, though it is more likely against this type of opponent than another.

CallMeIshmael · #10 04-22-2005, 12:38 PM

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In retrospect, I'm not sure that I like my play here. If I get the numbers right here, I'm betting that Villian will lay down his hand here about one time in five (9.5BB when I put in 2BB - is this right?). This probably isn't the case, though it is more likely against this type of opponent than another.

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If you are doing the 2BB to 9.5BB pot ratio, you are assuming that you wouldnt have called.

Do you think you are good 1 time in 10.5 here? (Ie. If you opted not to raise, would you have called?)