Need help quick!!! (St.L-Astros) - Page 2

LotsOfOuts69 · #11 10-18-2005, 04:14 PM

Its the same either way:

If the cards are -150 they are 3:2 favs, winning 60% of the time.

Parlay that 60%: (0.6)*(0.6) = 0.36 chance to win both

So Astros are 64% to win the series = 0.64

So they are a 0.64:0.36 favorite or 1.78 to 1 (+178)

Thats assuming the line is again -150, which it probably will be around but I see it being worse.

I will just take my +175 now plus my extra $50 to bet.

Edit: Oops, didnt see your post tech, good job.

DougOzzzz · #12 10-18-2005, 04:20 PM

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Maybe I'm being an idiot, but wouldn't he be better off parlaying game 6 and 7 together? The line for tonight puts STL as a 60% fav to win, and the line for Game 7 will likely be around even or possibly somewhat in Houston's favor. Putting those together makes a more reasonable payout somewhere between 3 and 4-1.

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Your math is wrong. If StL is a 60% favorite in both games, that means they are 36% to win the series. That translates to a ML of +178, which is almost exactly where the series price sits.

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I believe he said STL is 60% to win game 6 and 50% to win game 7. That means they are about 30% to win the series and should be around +233.

I think STL will be more like -120 in game 7, but nevertheless "parlaying" the two games seems to make more sense (essentially, getting +208) than betting on STL to win the series at +173.

tech · #13 10-18-2005, 04:29 PM

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I believe he said STL is 60% to win game 6 and 50% to win game 7. That means they are about 30% to win the series and should be around +233.

I think STL will be more like -120 in game 7, but nevertheless "parlaying" the two games seems to make more sense (essentially, getting +208) than betting on STL to win the series at +173.

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My brain is kinda fried right now I will admit, but I don't see how you can achieve a +208 by betting a -150 and then a -120. Spell it out in detail. We must be thinking about different things.

whipsaw · #14 10-18-2005, 04:43 PM

1st bet: $1500 to win $1000 (-150). Win gives you $2500.
2nd bet: $2500 to win $2083 and 1/3 (-120). Win gives you $4583 and 1/3 total.

$3083 and 1/3 (profit) / $1500 = 2.06(rounded), so a +206 line would be appropriate given those individual game lines.

LotsOfOuts69 · #15 10-18-2005, 05:47 PM

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1st bet: $1500 to win $1000 (-150). Win gives you $2500.
2nd bet: $2500 to win $2083 and 1/3 (-120). Win gives you $4583 and 1/3 total.

$3083 and 1/3 (profit) / $1500 = 2.06(rounded), so a +206 line would be appropriate given those individual game lines.

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Yeah, if game 7 is -120, dont see how the line would be this low.

Anyway, I've hedged my bet already I took the cards +175 to win the series, thanks for the help though!!

--LoO

tech · #16 10-18-2005, 05:58 PM

OK. I'm with you. Basically you guys are saying that this is a better bet because you think the line on the second game will be less than it is currently priced. The series line has game 7 at around -145. If you think it will be less than that, then the parlay is definitely the way to go.