#1
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ballsy play or just lucky?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) converter
SB (t2720) Hero (t1230) UTG (t1710) MP (t2390) CO (t4540) Button (t910) Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls t150, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks. Flop: (t375) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, Button checks. Turn: (t375) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, Button checks. River: (t375) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t760 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t760. Final Pot: t1895 |
#2
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Re: ballsy play or just lucky?
Lucky
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#3
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Re: ballsy play or just lucky?
sorry i didnt include it he had A5 for just a pair of nines
why do you say lucky? dont you think he didnt want a call, that he just wanted to steal the pot? |
#4
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Re: ballsy play or just lucky?
Did you hear Vince Van Patten in your head while doing it? If yes, then it was a ballsy play.
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#5
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Re: ballsy play or just lucky?
[ QUOTE ]
sorry i didnt include it he had A5 for just a pair of nines why do you say lucky? dont you think he didnt want a call, that he just wanted to steal the pot? [/ QUOTE ] I actually like the play because the river paired the board. I think with top pair, he would have likely led the flop. By the turn, if he had a pair he probably would have bet. If he checks the turn with any pair, then I don't see him betting the river, he'd probably just check and hope for a showdown. That leaves the possibility that he is slowplaying something, but in that case, I think a value bet would be more likely on the river. A read would obviously help, but I'm not surprised that the 2s held up at all. Tough call though, but a good one. Next time don't post the results for a while, let some discussion develop. |
#6
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Re: ballsy play or just lucky?
What about 33, 44, 55, or someone just pushing with nuts or semi nuts and hoping for someone to make a dumb call? It is super super read dependent and unless I have a very good read I dont like calling that many chips with 22.
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#7
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Re: ballsy play or just lucky?
I think it's read-dependant as well. If he's a normal, not super-sharp player, I think there's a better chance he's bluffing with a push than by betting 300 or so. But he could also have a medium pocket pair, and since the last card probably didn't pair you, that could explain the bet. I can't really say if I'd call there or not, but I'd guess not without a read on the player.
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#8
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Re: ballsy play or just lucky?
are u winning over 50% of the time when u make that call?
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#9
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Re: ballsy play or just lucky?
[ QUOTE ]
are u winning over 50% of the time when u make that call? [/ QUOTE ] Calling 760 to win 1135... 1135 / 760 = 1.49 1.49 / (1.49 + 1) = 60% 1 - 60% = 40% [ QUOTE ] are u winning over 40% of the time when u make that call? [/ QUOTE ] FYP |
#10
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Re: ballsy play or just lucky?
$EV fold = .0926
$EV call and win = .177 $EV call and lose = .0447 .0926 = .177 * x + .0447 * (1 - x) .0926 = .177x + .0447 - .0447x .132x = .0479 x = .36 = 36% Which is wierd so I probably made a mistake. I was expecting the number to be greater than 40%. I've got to go, can someone find my mistake? Or maybe in this case you are getting a big bump by eliminating a player if you win. |
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