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#1
05-01-2005, 07:41 PM
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Yet Another Tough Call
Seat 1: ringo777 ( $3407 )
Seat 5: k11a46 ( $2490 ) Seat 6: ninjaferret ( $2729 ) Seat 10: andythanhle ( $1374 ) Trny:11825433 Level:8 Blinds(250/500) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to ninjaferret [ Ks Ac ] ringo777 is all-In. k11a46 folds I called this time. But I'm not sure it was the right move. I don't want to put it into eastbay's program because of the short stack and large blinds. Should have I just waited for the small stack to bust? Ringo was a poor player but I hand't seen him push trash. 
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#2
05-01-2005, 08:23 PM
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Re: Yet Another Tough Call
Now that I know who you are, it is your style to call here.
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#3
05-01-2005, 08:30 PM
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Re: Yet Another Tough Call
you're either a small dog or a big favorite, so call here and go on to win this thing. you have alot of 1st place EV if you call but if you fold and the small stack doubles or wins the blinds you're in the same bad shape as the other 2 smaller stacks
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#4
05-01-2005, 08:36 PM
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Re: Yet Another Tough Call
[ QUOTE ]
Now that I know who you are, it is your style to call here. [/ QUOTE ] Do you fold this Scuba? Pusher is chip leader and with shorty on the BB he only needs a hand that beats BB's random hand as everyone else will have tightened up considerably. Plus he has FE on the BB. This is a pretty easy call for me to make, but I'd love to hear arguments to the contrary.
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#5
05-01-2005, 08:44 PM
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Re: Yet Another Tough Call
[ QUOTE ] Do you fold this Scuba? Pusher is chip leader and with shorty on the BB he only needs a hand that beats BB's random hand as everyone else will have tightened up considerably. Plus he has FE on the BB. This is a pretty easy call for me to make, but I'd love to hear arguments to the contrary. [/ QUOTE ] I agree, I make this call based on the same line of thought.
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#7
05-01-2005, 09:37 PM
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Re: Yet Another Tough Call
I don't really have a contrary argument except to say there is no reason to call your whole stack against a guy "who hasn't raised trash", given that BB will either call or be very crippled. But when I plugged this into eastbay's analyzer, it said folding is correct even if villain will push any two.
OP said he not want to run this hand in the analyzer. First, why not exactly? Second, does the fact that apparently this play is always -$EV according to the calculator have any intuititive meaning to anybody?
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#9
05-01-2005, 09:45 PM
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Re: Yet Another Tough Call
original poster
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#10
05-01-2005, 09:54 PM
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Re: Yet Another Tough Call
I didn't want to run it in the analyzer because it does not take into account blinds, which generally leads to inaccuracy when stacks get really small.
It sees andythanhle as having 1374 chips when in reality he has 874 because 500 of it is in the pot. I think if I fold he will call the all-in about 75% of time or more, and I give him maybe 40% chance at winning. In my mind, if I fold then I make the money the next hand 45%+ of the time or so. 25% of the time he folds and is so small that he will bust within a round probably 65% of the time. 30% of the time he doubles up and everyone has equal stacks. No tragedy there. If I call the all in, I think the short stack folds 99% of the time. I think I am up against AT+ or 66+. I have 54% equity againts that range. If I call about half the time I bust out for $0 and half the time I double up and I am still not in the money. Yes it gives me a decent chance at taking 1st but I am not heavily favored versus the field. I really don't know what is correct here.
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