I'm a real enthusiast!

Ultimate Bet 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 5 folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero (FOLD or RAISE)?

Final Pot: 5.25 BB

Let's assume, villain only 3-bets preflop with AK, AA, KK, QQ or JJ. With the AJ in my hand and the turn showing the K, there are 15 possibilities for AK, AA or KK and 9 possibilities for QQ or JJ. So in 38% of all cases, he has to fear the King. And lets assume, hero bets the turn with every of his holdings, regardsless the king.

A raise costs hero 2 BB to win 5.25 BB. If my maths is correct, than this is +EV, if villain folds more than 73% of the time with QQ or JJ. Is this realistic?

I'm playing poker now for six month and have already lost approx. 1200$. But, hey, as everybody here, I love this game and don't want to abandon it only because I'm losing. With my job, I can cover my losses, and other hobbies are also expensive. Every evening at the table gives me deep feelings, the one or the other way. And I think, poker also needs some enthusiasts like me, who do not care too much about their losses. I will never abandon the hope, that one day I will also become a decent player. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]