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  #1  
Old 04-17-2005, 10:18 PM
XChamp XChamp is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 164
Default Discrepancy in AleoMagus\' Confidence

So I have been fiddling around with some stats and I decided I wanted to check out my confidence interval for my last 350 tournies.

So I dug up this post by AleoMagus and followed his directions to a T. I found that I have an 89.5% confidence that my true win rate is positive. Ok, great.

But then I found this confidence calculator, which is also done by AleoMagus. So, I entered in my stats only to find that it gives a 98.3% confidence that my true winrate is positive.

Relevant stats would be:

total number of tournies: 339 $55 Party Sit and Goes.

1sts: 36
2nds: 55
3rds: 48



What gives?
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  #2  
Old 04-18-2005, 02:04 AM
XChamp XChamp is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 164
Default Re: Discrepancy in AleoMagus\' Confidence

I figured out what was wrong. I had stupidly not changed my confidence range to +/- winrate.
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