Riverbluff +EV?

xenthebrain · #1 07-02-2005, 10:08 AM

Villain is 84/0 and WSD 40

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls, Button folds.

River: (7.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets...

But after missing, do you think a riverbluff is +EV?

benkath1 · #2 07-02-2005, 10:22 AM

When I play hands like this I start thinking, If they will call a bb on the turn, they'll proably call one on the river. With 9 high, I would check fold.

Mathieu · #3 07-02-2005, 04:07 PM

If your opponnent likes to chase, he could have many hands that beat 9 high but that he will fold on the river.

The texture of the board changes things, here the A falling on 4th street makes it "technically" impossible for someone to keep chasing with just overcards.

xenthebrain · #4 07-02-2005, 04:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If your opponnent likes to chase, he could have many hands that beat 9 high but that he will fold on the river.

The texture of the board changes things, here the A falling on 4th street makes it "technically" impossible for someone to keep chasing with just overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it wasn't against a random person, but against an ultraloose 84%vpip person.... He really can have any two in his hands.

Aaron W. · #5 07-02-2005, 11:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 84/0 and WSD 40

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP3 calls, Button folds.

River: (7.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets...

But after missing, do you think a riverbluff is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on what hands you think villain has. Would he chase KTo after the ace falls? If so, then your bet probably has value. Would he chase a gutshot to the river in the face of all of the betting? Then your river bet has a little more value. If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

imported_Reaction · #6 07-03-2005, 11:26 AM

Aaron,

I understand this
[ QUOTE ]
It depends on what hands you think villain has. Would he chase KTo after the ace falls? If so, then your bet probably has value. Would he chase a gutshot to the river in the face of all of the betting? Then your river bet has a little more value.

[/ QUOTE ]

but not this:
[ QUOTE ]
If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that getting any better hand to fold has value. I guess "bad" has me confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

xenthebrain · #7 07-03-2005, 11:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that getting any better hand to fold has value. I guess "bad" has me confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
He will only rarely be on a missed flush and even if I will occasionaly bluff him out when he missed a flush the majority of the time I will lose.
So when I will only succeed when he was on a flushdraw the bet would be -EV in the long run.

jrz1972 · #8 07-03-2005, 04:41 PM

Dude, he's got an 80% VP and a 40% WSD? My WSD is barely over 30% and my VP is only 18%. This guy is showing down absolute garbage.

DO NOT TRY TO BLUFF THE FISH.

You win gobs of money off these guys by flopping top pair and having them chase you down with their pocket 4s or whatever. The corrolary to that is that you cannot expect to bluff them.

Aaron W. · #9 07-03-2005, 04:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, he's got an 80% VP and a 40% WSD? My WSD is barely over 30% and my VP is only 18%. This guy is showing down absolute garbage.

DO NOT TRY TO BLUFF THE FISH.

You win gobs of money off these guys by flopping top pair and having them chase you down with their pocket 4s or whatever. The corrolary to that is that you cannot expect to bluff them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Showing down "absolute garbage" results in a WSD that looks like 60-80%. 40% WSD is probably showing down most mid-pairs and folding the bottom pair and high card hands. The fact that the board was paired decreases the chance that he has a pair. Therefore, you must consider the types of draws villain could have had.

I don't know why you think that having an 18 VPIP and 30 WSD really makes you that much tighter than villain postflop. You're seeing the showdown 75% of the times he is when you both see the flop (could also be much closer because of the likely sample size issue). That's *NOT* a whole lot more. It's just that you see significantly fewer flops.

Aaron W. · #10 07-03-2005, 03:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Aaron,

I understand this
[ QUOTE ]
It depends on what hands you think villain has. Would he chase KTo after the ace falls? If so, then your bet probably has value. Would he chase a gutshot to the river in the face of all of the betting? Then your river bet has a little more value.

[/ QUOTE ]

but not this:
[ QUOTE ]
If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that getting any better hand to fold has value. I guess "bad" has me confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

When you're bluffing the river, you've got to figure out how many hands villain will fold that are better than yours, and how many he will call that are better than yours. If villain would chase all sorts of draws, then this increases the number of hands that will fold to the river bet which are better than hero's hand (you win when you fold out a better hand). If there are very few hands that villain would chase, then a bet is bad because it's much more likely he has a pair and will call hero's bluff.