$55: Call a push with OE Straight Flush draw

[Taraz]

I'm thinking I should have folded since it was so early and I wasn't the one pushing all in. Right?

***** Hand History for Game 2999067190 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:17223830 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Monday, November 07, 21:44:53 EDT 2005
Table Table 67095 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: Max3791 ( $1630 )
Seat 2: TheBoy5000 ( $1055 )
Seat 3: ten100 ( $2470 )
Seat 4: vitico4400 ( $450 )
Seat 5: BissBass ( $1260 )
Seat 6: bigdog911891 ( $455 )
Seat 7: OXOTHuK ( $925 )
Seat 8: urbeatagain ( $710 )
Seat 9: hero( $1045 )
Trny:17223830 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero[ J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
vitico4400 calls [50].
BissBass calls [50].
bigdog911891 folds.
OXOTHuK folds.
urbeatagain folds.
Hero calls [50].
Max3791 raises [100].
TheBoy5000 folds.
ten100 calls [50].
vitico4400 calls [50].
BissBass calls [50].
Hero calls [50].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]
ten100 is all-In.
vitico4400 folds.
BissBass folds.
Hero is all-In.

[pineapple888]

Nine outs to the nut flush
Three outs to the nut straight (but might be a split pot)
Three possible outs to a straight (with an 8)
Maybe three A outs

Looks like more than enough to call.

[Taraz]

Doesn't it matter that my stack is fine and I'm probably only a 55-45 favorite?

Worst case scenario he has KdJd, against that you're 42.73% to win, against every other possible holding you're a favorite to win, so I'd have to think he had the straight for me to fold.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't it matter that my stack is fine and I'm probably only a 55-45 favorite?

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling 975 to win 2425 as a 55% favorite? This price completely overwhelms any future +EV considerations.

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't it matter that my stack is fine and I'm probably only a 55-45 favorite?

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems unlikey that you're that big a favorite. You're a 60-40 dog to a set, 57-43 to a KJ straight, and I think they're probably more likely to play it this way than top pair, to which you are a 55-45 favorite.

Overall, I think you're a likely dog to the range of hands you should expect to see, though there may be enough in the middle to make it a correct call on pot odds. I doubt that taking what is unlikely to be much better than a flip this early is +$EV, though.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
Worst case scenario he has KdJd, against that you're 42.73% to win, against every other possible holding you're a favorite to win, so I'd have to think he had the straight for me to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


Just to nitpick:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1331762
pokenum -h ac jc - 9c 9s -- qc tc 9d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qc Tc 9d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Jc 398 40.20 583 58.89 9 0.91 0.407
9s 9c 583 58.89 398 40.20 9 0.91 0.593

But I'm still calling.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't it matter that my stack is fine and I'm probably only a 55-45 favorite?

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems unlikey that you're that big a favorite. You're a 60-40 dog to a set, 57-43 to a KJ straight, and I think they're probably more likely to play it this way than top pair, to which you are a 55-45 favorite.

Overall, I think you're a likely dog to the range of hands you should expect to see, though there may be enough in the middle to make it a correct call on pot odds. I doubt that taking what is unlikely to be much better than a flip this early is +$EV, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot odds say 40% is a call, and that's worst case. ICM considerations and future +EV don't make enough of a difference to matter. You just can't pass this up.

[tigerite]

I think I'd have to call here. River a royal.

[bennies]

Yes, I'd call too with 500 chips in the middle already, but I wouldn't be too happy about it. However, I don't think KJ pushes first to act on this flop. A set, sure.