Suicide?

[zephyr]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed)

Hero (t715)
CO (t590)
Button (t590)
SB (t345)
BB (t1840)
UTG (t905)
UTG+1 (t1050)
MP1 (t1045)
MP2 (t920)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t30, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t30, CO calls t30, Button calls t30, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t180) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets t200</font>, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t685 (All-In)</font>

[tigerite]

He either has a 9 or a strong draw, such as AJ/AT/KQ/KJ of hearts. In which case, you're actually behind to his 15 outs. But maybe your push would take him off such a hand.. I'd say it's only suicide if he has exactly a 9, and probably if he has TT or JJ as well. Any other hand you could feasibly push him off of, but is it worth the risk so early in the tournament?

[Voltron87]

Pretty close to suicide.

[SonnyJay]

In this situation, I'm playing the 88 for set value. With blinds still at 15/30 you can probably find much better places to get your money in later on.

Seems like suicide, IMHO.

-SonnyJay

[eastbay]

I don't know if it's complete suicide, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 98s, T9s, A9, or TT get turned up.

What do you put the bettor on that drives this play? Underpair? Ax?

eastbay

[TheGremlin]

is it 10NL ? 20NL? or 30NL ?
it does not realy matter but will give a little more idea ...

the worst had u can face here is not 9x but 22.
in this stage i would have folded to a 200chips bet.

with a 200 chips bet , he has AK , AQ , AJ with a strong draw. I dont think anyone would bet 200 on a flopped set people tend to slow play these, and wait for turn to see that flush dont hit.

if he had bet 50 - 100 , I would have pushed and he would have folded , but 200 he is already commited to the pot. and will call with a draw.

and since it is PP tourney you will lose on the river !

[Biff M.]

How can 22 be the worst hand he can face? Any 9 would leave him with 2 outs, 22 would leave him with 4. Right?

[Jman28]

I wouldn't be suprised if you're ahead of the bettor, but it's still not a good risk to take.

There's still the CO to speak after you, who probably would check 9x or 22. Just a small consideration to add.

[zephyr]

I pretty much ruled out AA, KK, QQ as most players raise these preflop. TT and JJ are possible, but many players also raise these preflop. If the button hit three nines, and it was checked to him, he would likely bet smaller, although I would not be entirely surprised to see him turn over a nine here.

I think the most likely holdings of the villain are 33-JJ.

The other key to this move is that there is only one player between me and the villain. If I was next to act after the villain, I'd have to fold as the chance of one of the other players slowplaying a 9 is too great.

Finally, the villain is on the button and may be trying to steal the pot.

Basically, I thought it was unlikely that the villain held a 9 nine here, hence the push.

Any other thoughts? Results to follow.

Zephyr

[Jman28]

I don't think he has a 9 either. I put him on overs with the flush draw.