AJs in a big multi-way pot....

meep_42 · #1 07-19-2005, 04:57 PM

This hand was about a month ago, but in going through the HH, I don't see anyone that's really out of line in this hand, so we'll go readless on this one...

Do you go to the mat here? What's your river plan on a non-[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, MP1 3-bets, CO folds, Hero caps, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (14.16 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, MP1 calls, Hero...

-d

mantasm · #2 07-19-2005, 05:01 PM

3bet. You may have the best hand now, and if you don't you have all 9 flush outs (none pair the board) and 4 boat outs. Since it's still 4 ways on the turn you're getting value even if you're behind.

hicherbie · #3 07-19-2005, 05:02 PM

hmm. a bunch of hands would raise in such a large pot vs 3. Id go to war and slow down on the river if i didnt hit.

W. Deranged · #4 07-19-2005, 05:05 PM

If there was absolutely no chance hero had the best hand at the moment, we would have 13 pure outs:

13 / 46 = 28.3% = hero's minimum equity > 25%

As long as it's four-handed, there is only one solution:

Gas it up!

Nick C · #5 07-19-2005, 05:09 PM

Well, in theory, we actually have 13 outs against a set of 6's or 7's, so we could have an equity edge versus three opponents even if we're not currently ahead.

Given that we have three opponents, though, and only one is still raising, it is likely than a few of the cards we want to see are in our opponents' hands. Still, I'm thinking 3-betting can't be that bad, even though I do suspect we're drawing. (I think just calling is okay too, though. The decision seems close to me.)

The river's going to be awkward if we don't improve. I think I would check and let UTG+1 bet, with the plan of overcalling.

I don't know. He could just have A7/A6, but I am pretty concerned about a set at this point.

mantasm · #6 07-19-2005, 05:11 PM

And about the river, check call if it's capped, bet if it's not.

#7 07-19-2005, 05:15 PM

Why are you thinking about folding on the turn with 19.16-to-1 immediate pot odds, the overpair, and the nut flush draw? My decision whether to re-raise or call depends upon how many will call my re-raise -- if I think all 3 will, then I bet; if less than 3, then I call, thinking I'll get more money in the pot that way.

I'm likely to call down the river if I don't hit the spade, but that depends on whether there is only 1 person who is left who I think is on a busted draw (this looks unlikely to happen because I expect UTG+1 is not solely on a draw and will be there at SD).

TomBrooks · #8 07-19-2005, 05:16 PM

...3 BETS.

If UTG has a set you have 13 outs to beat him and if your card comes in on the river, 3-betting now will disguise the hand you make somewhat.

Your odds of improving are 2.5:1. Having MP1 come along, which he probably will, will provide you with almost enough overlay to make this bet for value. If you get all three callers, you have value.

It's also possible that you are already ahead of a worse two pair or an overplayed flush draw.

chief444 · #9 07-19-2005, 05:18 PM

Easy 3-bet. I may check/call the river unimproved if he caps though.

meep_42 · #10 07-19-2005, 05:19 PM

I'm not at all thinking about folding, here or the river.

More general note: I do not have 13 outs here. After the flop action it is very, very unlikely that I have the only Ace and/or the only flush draw.

-d