AJs in a big multi-way pot....

[W. Deranged]

Obviously some outs will be taken up in villain's hands, but note that if we are behind to a set already, and that set is not AA or JJ (which we can assume more safely given pre-flop action, though you never know), you probably don't have more than 3 outs total tied up in villain's hands. The only way you could have 4 tied up is if you were against another draw and another AJ, or against two other one pair hands which happened to have spade kickers (are your opponents that horrible here???)

Assuming three outs are in villain's hands, realizing we have now theoretically "seen" six more cards, your drawing equity is 10/40 = 25% which means a raise here if it stays four-handed is exactly dead even. Add the probability you might be ahead, however small, and this is still an easy raise.

[Margeaux]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not at all thinking about folding, here or the river.

More general note: I do not have 13 outs here. After the flop action it is very, very unlikely that I have the only Ace and/or the only flush draw.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

If we are behind, that probably means that UTG+1 has a set of 6s or 7s, considering action on earlier streets--and that means he has no [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. If we're putting one of the cold-callers on a bad [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] draw, that means we have 2 fewer outs and 4 fewer cards in the deck:

11 outs / 42 cards > 25%

Even if somehow both Aces are out there, and there's another spade draw, and we're behind to set 6s or 7s, that leaves us with a likely 9 outs / 40 cards and very close to the 25% we need.

Note that we only need these outs in the unlikely event that we're behind... and if we aren't behind, as W. says, go ahead and gas it up.

[thejameser]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy 3-bet. I may check/call the river unimproved if he caps though.

[/ QUOTE ]

as much as i LOVED stonewalls analysis, i must echo chief.

[meep_42]

I thought this was a pretty easy 3-bet myself when I looked it over. Glad everyone's on the same page.

I did discount 3 of my outs and thought I was behind a set about half the time, and i'd only be capped some (33-66%) of the time against a set (since I could easily have AA).

River bricks, A6 and A7 lose to my turned top-two.
(one folded, so both aces were out and either a straight or flush draw)

-d

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Note that we only need these outs in the unlikely event that we're behind...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we're drawing against UTG+1 most of the time here. Sometimes we'll be tied with him and freerolling against his hand. Occasionally, he'll have a worse hand entirely (such as a worse two pair).

But, usually, we'll be drawing, I think.

Fortunately, we do have a pretty good draw, though.

[Nick C]

You don't have to have your actual 36-42 outs (instead of 9-13) all that often for a turn 3-bet to be a good thing.

[TripleH68]

Fun hand...

Once UTG+1 raises the turn for value, a set becomes a real possibility...but two pair/draw is still out there.

MP1 is playing like a draw, possibly a flush draw which would be discount a few outs. Limping in preflop he may hold two pair or even AK also and was looking to beef up the pot on the flop.

UTG is a little worrisome calling, calling and calling three cold back to him on the flop. Often times this means the player is a donator.

If you 3-bet the turn and UTG folds/UTG+1 caps I would not be happy, but with a read of UTG+1 as sensible you can plan to check/call the river on any non-spade.

If UTG is going to call then I would not hesitate to face him with 3 cold.

If UTG+1 does not cap then I would lead the river on a non spade...

Thanks . . . lol. I'm just a newbie trying to learn. Seems like posting without first hearing others' opinions, and then getting torn up is a good way to do it.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

I have a hard time putting UTG+1 on a set and more likely on a worse two pair. Your action preflop and post flop is consistant with a big ace or Ax of spades out side chance of AA.

The strength of UTG+1 is still unknown yet as he only was allowed 1 action on the flop, you can't slow down just yet. A 3 bet is in order as a lot of two pair hands UTG+1 may have had will still raise the turn putting you on AK/AQ.

Later,
MarkV.