Paul Phillips method

[drewjustdrew]

Let's try an incomplete information hand and see how it goes.

.50/1.00 blinds online.

One limper, cutoff raises to $4, I call from SB, BB calls.

Pot is $16.
Flop is Q,J,6 rainbow
I bet $10, two folds, cutoff raises to $22, I reraise to $34, cutoff calls.
Turn is another J.
I bet $15 into $81 pot, cutoff raises all-in and has me covered. I have $45 left in my stack. What is my minimum calling requirement? ($156 pot) My read on the player is that he a good player. I.e., not wild or tricky.

[j0wlev]

QQ, JJ, QJ, 66.

[mudbuddha]

5:1 to make this call, i dont understand the turn bet but i dont know your cards..

AJ, KJ, with odds like this your range is pretty big. your pretty much commited with any piece of this

i would have to say i would call with alot larger range than j0wlev would call with .. just b/c pot odds.

[Georgia Avenue]

Add AA or KK I think...

[NickPoker]

[ QUOTE ]
QQ, JJ, QJ, 66.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like you think the villain has at least ToP 2 on flop, based on that logic, why would you call with 6-6. If you are going to call with 66, why wouldn't you call with a Jack?

Villain range on flop is AQ, set, QJ. K10s, or 109s. I don't see a non tricky reasonable villain reraising with anything less than this. In fact, the likely hood of AQ,K10, or 109 is low.
Your weak bet on the turn may encourage him to go over the top with any of the holdings above, though it is much more likely he has Top2 or better (most likely holding is QJ). Without doing the math I still call with a J or better for rthis amount of money. The only thing I am really comfortable with is QQ, or QJ. With all that being said, I can't think of too many hands I would have played the way the hero did other than maybe QQ or QJ.

[NickPoker]

I agree with Georgia I would add AA, KK and AQ to my list based on pot odds (though I think they are beat a good portion of the time).

[Cardinal991]

Isn't QJ trying to get as much money in the pot as possible? Is pushing the way to do this?

It looks like hero has 66, which I'd call with. Also QQ, JJ (bien sur!), and QJ. I think villain has AA, KK, or AQ.

[NickPoker]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't QJ trying to get as much money in the pot as possible? Is pushing the way to do this?

It looks like hero has 66, which I'd call with. Also QQ, JJ (bien sur!), and QJ. I think villain has AA, KK, or AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]
On the turn the villain could easily have QQ or QJ and push because he feels hero is pot committed. Do you reraise on flop flop with AQ or worse?, not sure I would.

[DoomSlice]

You made a weak bet, which will encourage him to bluff, so your calling hand range has to expand to account for this.

I'd say any Queen (with a good kicker), any pair higher than a Queen, and of course any jack.

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
You made a weak bet, which will encourage him to bluff, so your calling hand range has to expand to account for this.

[/ QUOTE ]

This I think is the key to the hand, and ultimately where I went wrong. Though I saw someone else say to fold preflop. In the hand I had AQ off. The opponent had AQ suited. I folded to the all-in raise, the opponent flashed his cards, so I know what he had for sure.

Afterward, he said the turn bet seemed a little fishy to him. This wasn't even in my thought process and should have been.

When I folded, I considered AQ the weakest possible hand he could have based on all the action. I really thought he had AA or KK after he went all in, but thought he might have AJ and sucked out. Looking back, that would not have been a good play on the flop by him with AJ, so I should have ruled that out, unless he had an unlikely QJ.

I don't have much NL experience, so if 5:1 is pretty good odds for TPTK in this situation, I will consider it in the future.

Thanks.

Edit: It is actually 3.46:1 on the call. How about now? Or am I looking at this ratio incorrectly? $45 to win $156, not $45 to win $201 pot.