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  #41  
Old 12-18-2005, 08:38 AM
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Default Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky

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Therefore your bet was weak because a good player getting into early foul trouble certainly isn't outside the realm of possibility, no?

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Well, that's ALWAYS true, of any CBB game. It's not outside the realm of possibility, but what is? It happens, although it's not a very likely occurrence. It randomizes the outcomes of the games somewhat, true, but it is what it is. It's one of the many reasons I prefer the NBA to college in general, for betting and as a fan.

If you think the possibility of such an occurrence constitutes a "weak bet," then I can't believe you think betting on the NFL is profitable, the most randomized sport of all IMO.

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Foul trouble is so much more likely than a usually healthy star NFL player getting hurt that I really can't believe you're using that as an analogy. Btw the NFL is profitable exactly because of randomized but foreseeable events, it is historically better to take dogs when in doubt because the randomness of the events you mention favors teams getting points. 2005 is a strong outlier to this tried and true method.

The issue here is that a game of the century or whatever should basically nullify virtually all risk probability, foul trouble in an NCAA game being one of the more likely risk situations you'll encounter. If both of the star players got into early foul trouble then you'd have a better leg to stand on as that's much more unlikely, but it was just one of them. The team never enjoyed a lead in 40 minutes.

I don't care about losing the bet, I just think your (lack of) inclination toward covering all the bases is faulty enough to warrant the question of whether you're participating in a profitable activity in the long run. Live and learn, or just stop.
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  #42  
Old 12-18-2005, 11:06 AM
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Default Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky

Ccx just wanted to add I don't at all equate 5 unit plays with games of the century etc. At absolute best, they are top games of the week and I've stated at least once that no one should go off the deep end on those plays. I regret if people have played them at higher levels than they deserve. They have a high probability of success but I never express the sort of certitude and hubris that bills217 did on this thread.
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  #43  
Old 12-19-2005, 01:30 PM
Easy E Easy E is offline
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Default Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky

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If you can't be honest with yourself about your favorite sports team...then what can you be honest w/ yourself about?

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Preaching to the choir here my friend [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] gl in the future

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Is it bad that I found this funny? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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  #44  
Old 12-19-2005, 02:34 PM
mmbt0ne mmbt0ne is offline
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Default Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky

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Just talked to dad, who played at Kentucky in '69...

"Can you believe they're favored?"
"No...no...no...I wouldn't bet two cents on them."

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Assuming you mean 69-70 season (since there are no lettermen from 68-69 who only played one year) is he Randy Noll, or Mark Soderberg?

Also, I love UK, ande would've made the same play if I ever bet against teams I rooted for. However, most of your reasons are pretty bootleg and fairweather fan-ish.
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  #45  
Old 12-19-2005, 08:08 PM
bills217 bills217 is offline
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Default Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky

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Assuming you mean 69-70 season (since there are no lettermen from 68-69 who only played one year) is he Randy Noll, or Mark Soderberg?

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He played on the freshman team in '68-'69 under Hall. Was a walk-on, never lettered on the varsity, played only that one year. Jerry Springate.
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  #46  
Old 12-20-2005, 05:45 AM
siccjay siccjay is offline
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Default Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky

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and one was at Louisville, where the fans are split and it might as well be a neutral site.

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Cheatem Hall a neutral site? Not even close really. The fans are not split evenly at all.

All this info but you didn't really talk about very many home losses. Post the total home and away records and I think it hurts your arguement. All teams lose a couple home games buddy.
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  #47  
Old 12-20-2005, 05:05 PM
bills217 bills217 is offline
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Default Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky

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Post the total home and away records and I think it hurts your arguement.

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Wrong.

Overall record is not relevant, because the home schedule is extremely weak compared to the schedule on the road and at neutral sites.

The against-the-spread results, however, you might find interesting:

Kentucky 2004-05 ATS

home: 5-6-1
away: 6-4
neutral: 5-4

Kentucky 2003-04 ATS

home: 7-5-1
away: 6-4-2
neutral: 3-3

Kentucky 2002-03 ATS (not including a home exhibition loss to powerhouse Nike Elite)

home: 6-6
road: 9-3
neutral: 6-3-1

Every year a higher ATS win % on the road than at home.

Overall

home: 18-17-2
away: 21-11-2
neutral: 14-10-1

Are you convinced yet? I can't believe I spent this much time doing this...it's common knowledge to others who follow the team as closely as I do.
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  #48  
Old 12-21-2005, 05:29 AM
siccjay siccjay is offline
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Default Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky

I was not talking about Against the Spread. Ever think maybe that the home record is weaker because NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY THERE.

You keep mentioning the loss to Nike Elite LIKE IT MATTERS.

I know tons of UK fans and have never heard anything remotely close to your crazy theroy.
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  #49  
Old 12-21-2005, 04:56 PM
bills217 bills217 is offline
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Default Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky

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You keep mentioning the loss to Nike Elite LIKE IT MATTERS.

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The 23,000+ fans in attendance (including myself) who booed them off the court seemed to think it matters. I happen to think a prestigious program such as Kentucky losing an exhibition game to a traveling band of rejects at Rupp Arena (where we supposedly have this huge homecourt advantage) is pretty embarrassing.

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I was not talking about Against the Spread. Ever think maybe that the home record is weaker because NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY THERE.

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No major conference team wants to schedule non-conference games on the road, anywhere. Rupp Arena is no different.

You may not have been "talking about" against-the-spread, but that is really the only thing that's relevant. It measures how well the team played relative to expectations. And they've played much better on the road and at neutral sites than at home.
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  #50  
Old 12-22-2005, 05:42 PM
RiverTheNuts RiverTheNuts is offline
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Default Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky

bump... good pick
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