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  #11  
Old 12-29-2005, 06:27 PM
Pasterbator Pasterbator is offline
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Default Re: 215 Flush on paired board

[ QUOTE ]
thinking about folding this river is worthy of being slapped around.

[/ QUOTE ]

I shouldnt be commenting on $215 hands anyway. Make me your punching bag.
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  #12  
Old 12-29-2005, 06:48 PM
citanul citanul is offline
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Default Re: 215 Flush on paired board

what hands do you think he can have here?
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  #13  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:38 PM
Pasterbator Pasterbator is offline
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Default Re: 215 Flush on paired board

Cit, help me with my analysis.

The way i see it, he limped UTG preflop. So i guess he can have a range of 22-AA, AJ+, A2s+, and all suited connectors if he doesn't mind playing them OOP. I'm thinking this is as wide as his range could be. I keep forgetting that not everyone is as tight as I am in EP, so they might limp many hands.

He calls the flop bet. Either hes 1) testing with a small/medium pair to see if hes good, 2) on a flush draw 3) Hit the flop hard.

He cold calls a reraise on the turn. I don't think he can do this without a made flush or a boat. I can't think of any hand containing the Kd that isnt KK who was looking for a limp reraise PF and missed. So he MIGHT be looking to hit his flush.

On the river, he leads for our remaining stack. This is exactly how most people would play 88, 22, AA, and a lot of smaller flushes. I guess the chance that he has a smaller flush (or is bluffing with the Kd) is good enough that you should be calling on this river every time.

Did i misstep anywhere?
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  #14  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:56 PM
microbet microbet is offline
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Default Re: 215 Flush on paired board

You have most of the possibilities, but unless you know the villian you can't rule anything out. Some people enter a pot with the intention of bluffing it. Even with the intention of doing a multi-street bluff. Some of these players have gone on to do things like do really well at WPT tournaments. Some people overvalue some hands that you didn't include and then think you are bluffing because either the board paired or there is a flush draw or whatever. But, basically, just the good possibility of a lower flush here or a bluff after missing, is enough to make the call.

I think you could find a fold against a very predictable 2p2er whose limp UTG almost by itself guarantees mid (maybe small) PP. For some players that limp guarantees it and for some the only other possible hands would be AQs or AJs and with the Ace out in the flush, that would rule them out from having a flush. I don't think that player plays a middle pocket pair that doesn't fill up on the this hand in this fashion.
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  #15  
Old 12-29-2005, 09:16 PM
UCF THAYER UCF THAYER is offline
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Default Re: 215 Flush on paired board

I folded FWIW, guess i shouldn't have.
When he cold called my reraise, i was confident i was in bad shape, and just felt like folding to his bet on the river was the right decision.
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