oesfd 1/2 6max

george w of poker · #1 08-13-2005, 02:57 PM

villain is tag

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

CO ($73.60)
Hero ($297.40)
SB ($190)
BB ($275.90)
UTG ($169.03)
MP ($598.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, SB (poster) calls $3, 1 fold.

Flop: ($14) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $10, UTG folds, Hero raises to $30, SB pushes $146 more

his likely holdings are Adxd, 77, 88. is this a fold?

yvesaint · #2 08-13-2005, 03:11 PM

I think this is a clear fold, because your flush outs are either not good at all, or you're drawing against a set. TPTK w/o a draw wouldn't play this way, especially without diamonds, and the fact that the A is NOT a diamond gives much more credit to Adxd.

This hand becomes trickier when the A is a diamond, but the 7 or 8 isn't.

george w of poker · #3 08-13-2005, 03:23 PM

Can anyone give some advice as to how you would figure out in the heat of the battle what odds you need to call. Knowing the approximate odds for these hands helps a lot I'm sure but how to guess-weigh them.

cs3 · #4 08-13-2005, 03:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a clear fold, because your flush outs are either not good at all, or you're drawing against a set.

[/ QUOTE ]
you really fold this so easily? i dont think i let the open ended straight flush draw go, and in fact i'm pushing this myself more often than not.

also i think SB has either A8suited (non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) or 78suited far more often than a set, and i dont see pushes often enough with the nut flsuh draw to scare me off this hand. further more, if he is in fact drawing to a better flush then you are more likely to hit a straight than a flsuh anyway.
anyone agree with my reasoning?

to summarize, i very very rarely fold an oesf draw.

george w of poker · #5 08-13-2005, 04:07 PM

given the opponent and the way the hand played these are a possibility but a lot less likely in my opinion and adxd is the most likely hand.

Inevitable · #6 08-13-2005, 04:38 PM

Here's a link to Lost Wage's Hold'em drawing odds chart: http://home.houston.rr.com/texasholdempoker/odds.htm

Against a set, you have 15 one card outs (Tens, Fives, Diamonds), so you need 2.07:1 odds by the river. You need 116$ (146-30) to win $186 (10+30+146) so that's 1.603:1... making this a fold. I would probably call here, even though it's probably wrong to call all-ins on a draw.

george w of poker · #7 08-13-2005, 05:17 PM

the table you linked to doesn't render correctly in my browser but according to twodimes.net, a set against an oesfd is 58/42 making it a definite call against a set but if he has the nutflush draw half the time its a lot closer.

DrPublo · #8 08-13-2005, 05:43 PM

I really shouldnt say this for fear of losing my edge but the villain in this hand was me.

FWIW I estimated your hand range as like 30% set, 30% two pair, 10% big ace and 40% big draw, mostly because you didn't make one of those annoying min-raises. With a push I thought I might fold out something like 87s and a bigger ace and the rest of the time I'll take my chances.

In a hand like this it was tough for either of us to get away. I'll give you the pleasure of releasing the results when you feel there's been sufficient discussion.

The Doc

amoeba · #9 08-13-2005, 05:45 PM

really giving your 110% eh?

DrPublo · #10 08-13-2005, 05:54 PM

bleh 30-30-10-30

The Doc