Opinions on this satellite bubble push

[danger_mouse]

24 +2 Satellite on Full-Tilt. 7 players left. Top 5 get the ticket.

Villain and I had a history of the last two tables. On both tables, he was to my left. On both tables, the action was tight and I stole his blinds repeatedly. He also caught me on a continuation-bet bluff around 50 hands before. blinds 150/300 with 50 ante. I have seen him call down with 2nd and 3rd pair, particularly against me.

UTG folds
Villain UTG+1 (~7,000 chips) bets 900. A tad bit higher than standard for him. Table likes to fold, so this amount would likely get him the blinds.
Fold to me in BB (~8,000 chips) (Ac9c). I call, expecting I'm likely against two face cards or 77-AA.

FLOP: 4d6c9h. (Pot: 2,300)


I check into him. In my experience, he will continuation bet here 100% of the time (whether he hits the flop or not). He usually folds to a re-raise. He bets about 1,500.

I push.

Opinions?

[Rekwob]

what are the stacks of the other players?

[danger_mouse]

Stacks were roughly
5,000
7,000 (villian)
4,500
15,000
24,000
7,500
8,000 (me)

[scal78]

I'm curious to hear what people think about this.

At first you say you think he's got between 77 and AA. That's 4 hands that have you beat right now. You did not discount this when calling with A9.



So, my question is, if you think there is a 50/50 chance he may have 10-10 or higher why would you put your tourney life at stake? Especially, since your read on him is of a tight player.

Is calling here a bad play? This is where I struggle...if you call, you are left with about 12x BB. IMO, if you call the flop, and he comes out firing the turn, you have to put him on a big pair. If he checks the turn, you may be ahead. Either way, you can still get off the hand with good fold equity and only 2 spots to place. Is this a bad line?

Edit: Actually, you'd still have 18 BBs if you called the flop bet

[DemonDeac]

i like the push because you have a pretty good hand and (THIS IS KEY) have the villain covered in a satellite with 2 spots to go. you could very possibly get the villain to release a better hand in this spot.

[danger_mouse]

Scal. Just be be clear. I did not say he had AA-77. I said he either had two big face cards, or AA-77.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold to me in BB (~8,000 chips) (Ac9c). I call, expecting I'm likely against two face cards or 77-AA.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't disagree with the call. However, why don't you think villain could have AT-AK? This seems like optimistic hand reading.

The following excerpt from my guide explains this principle.


[ QUOTE ]
A. Reading Hands

I will give a couple of examples which will make clear how easy it is to read your opponents hands. Say you limp with A9o, someone raises and you call. If the board comes ace high, you can put your opponent on a pair of face cards and go allin. If the board comes nine high, you can put your opponent on a big ace and go allin.

Similarly, if you limp with 77, call a raise, and the flop comes with low cards you can put your opponent on AQ or AK and go allin.



[/ QUOTE ]
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...mp;o=&vc=1

[scal78]

[ QUOTE ]
Scal. Just be be clear. I did not say he had AA-77. I said he either had two big face cards, or AA-77.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you did that say that. My mistake. That changes my reasoning a little bit, but still curious to hear about opinions on calling the flop bet.

[danger_mouse]

I don't think my post was very clear, which is my fault. When I said two big face cards, I was definitely including AK-AJ (though admittedly, NOT A10).

[A_PLUS]

It depends on how the big stacks were playing. If they were content to fold there way in, Id rather keep stealing blinds, letting the other guys play the big pots. I think your play is unquestionably +CEV, but survival is really important here. Doubling your chips might add 20% to your $EV. So I would have folded preflop.