QQ free showdown

newhizzle · #1 12-08-2005, 07:40 AM

i just sat down, so i dont have any stats on anyone yet, i know BB is on my buddy list because i just redid it, but i dont have any notes on him and his stats hadnt shown up yet so i dont know if hes a maniac or loos passive or whatever, criteria for my buddie list is VPIP >50 or >40 and PFR <5

SB is unknown

Party Poker 50.00/100.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, CO calls, 1 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8.00 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, CO folds, SB calls, BB raises, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (7.00 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises...

how often do you think:

BB dosent have an ace or better?
SB will fold a weak ace or something with outs or something?

newhizzle · #2 12-08-2005, 08:03 PM

bump

good? bad? whats up?

andyfox · #3 12-08-2005, 08:31 PM

I don't know what VPIP and PFR mean. But were I playing live, against unknown opponents, I'd consider the fact that BB check-raised two opponents and fired again on teh turn. I'd make him a favorite to have an ace. SB didn't bet or check-raise the flop or bet the turn, so I'd rate him more likely to be on a draw or second pair than an ace. Can't say whether he'd lay down a small ace or not, should he happen to have one.

newhizzle · #4 12-08-2005, 08:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what VPIP and PFR mean.

[/ QUOTE ]

basically he plays over half his hands, but i didnt have a postflop read on him at this point

so you think this is a fold?

skp · #5 12-08-2005, 08:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what VPIP and PFR mean.

[/ QUOTE ]

You old fossil, get with the times and go online, my friend.

Actually, come to think of it, maybe you are smarter than me (well actually, there is no 'maybe' about it but anyway...). I find online poker extremely boring. But having played online poker, I now find live poker to be a yawn festival for different reasons.

Bottom line: Since October 3rd, I have played 8 hours online and no hours live. I now can't stand playing poker.
My wife never thought that this day would arrive. Neither did I for that matter.

So, do yourself a favor and stay with live poker: You will continue to have an enjoyable hobby.

...oh, back to the QQ hand...good analysis for a B&M player...heh

#6 12-09-2005, 05:23 AM

Your turn play is debatable. When the BB checkraises the flop after 2 people are committed, I would tentatively put him on this hand range: AT,A2,T2,22,TT,Ax and lastly, two diamonds. When the turn blanks off, you are behind every hand except a diamond draw. Is it worth raising this turn hoping the BB's on a flush draw? It might be. If you are positive that the BB would call preflop with any 2 diamonds, and he would also always checkraise the flop and lead the turn in this situation with any diamond draw then I think raising the turn is the correct move.

However, most players would not checkraise every diamond draw here nor would they necessarily lead the turn if they did checkraise. The dimaond draws that a good postflop player may checkraise with here are 5d4d,5d3d,5d2d,4d3d,4d2d,3d2d,KdJd. Thats 7 combinations. If we tighten up our range on the possible made hands the villain would checkraise the flop with to just TT,22,AQ,AK,AT,A2,T2s that would be 44 combinations. So based on these assumptions you are a 44-7 underdog. Since there is 8 BB in the pot once the villain bets the turn it appears you have the odds to call, but the problem is you will have to call any non diamond river(this fact lowers your effective odds to around 9-2, and if you are ahead you will still get rivered close to 20% of the time, and when you are behind you are drawing to 2 outs, and lastly the SB is still in the hand which also complicates things. Given the way the SB played his hand you are a strong favorite to have him beat, but it is still possible that the SB has a better hand than you that he wont let go.

Based on these assumptions you should not call the turn, which therefore means you should not raise the turn, so folding is the best move. But I will reiterate, if the BB will checkraise with any flushdraw on the flop and also lead the turn, then I think raising is your best move. Since you have no read on this player, I think you should fold the turn.

#7 12-09-2005, 05:29 AM

nice analysis westley, i agree that folding is the best play.

however, it is also worth noting that raising >>>>> calling.

newhizzle · #8 12-09-2005, 10:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your turn play is debatable. When the BB checkraises the flop after 2 people are committed, I would tentatively put him on this hand range: AT,A2,T2,22,TT,Ax and lastly, two diamonds. When the turn blanks off, you are behind every hand except a diamond draw. Is it worth raising this turn hoping the BB's on a flush draw? It might be. If you are positive that the BB would call preflop with any 2 diamonds, and he would also always checkraise the flop and lead the turn in this situation with any diamond draw then I think raising the turn is the correct move.

However, most players would not checkraise every diamond draw here nor would they necessarily lead the turn if they did checkraise. The dimaond draws that a good postflop player may checkraise with here are 5d4d,5d3d,5d2d,4d3d,4d2d,3d2d,KdJd. Thats 7 combinations. If we tighten up our range on the possible made hands the villain would checkraise the flop with to just TT,22,AQ,AK,AT,A2,T2s that would be 44 combinations. So based on these assumptions you are a 44-7 underdog. Since there is 8 BB in the pot once the villain bets the turn it appears you have the odds to call, but the problem is you will have to call any non diamond river(this fact lowers your effective odds to around 9-2, and if you are ahead you will still get rivered close to 20% of the time, and when you are behind you are drawing to 2 outs, and lastly the SB is still in the hand which also complicates things. Given the way the SB played his hand you are a strong favorite to have him beat, but it is still possible that the SB has a better hand than you that he wont let go.

Based on these assumptions you should not call the turn, which therefore means you should not raise the turn, so folding is the best move. But I will reiterate, if the BB will checkraise with any flushdraw on the flop and also lead the turn, then I think raising is your best move. Since you have no read on this player, I think you should fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

very good analysis man, thanks

i pretty much figured at the time that if i was going to continue, raising would be the best play so that if SB is on a draw i could charge him the max, i didnt know if BB was agressive or passive, a fold was probably the best play(he turned out to be 58/18/1.4 or something like that)

anyway, SB folded, the river was a blank and BB had KQo(1 diamond), charging himself the max on his gutshot and backdoor flush draw, i have a strong feeling that he would have called a river bet with his nut high card too, but im sure that a bet would not have been profitable in the long run

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