Another 200/400 bellagio hand vs terri

[skp]

Call.

All these bets and raise form a dialogue and her 4th bet certainly shouts out 33 or 55 more than J5 or J3 (which BTW are hands with which she may have raised you on the flop with and she didn't here which further indiactes a set).

Ya, you might look a little silly if you call and the river goes check check but that's the power of position. If you really wanted to, you could call the turn and then betcall the river. That's still 6 bets turn and river combined.

[DpR]

I think BK has thebest hand here close to 50% of the time.

Bottom line is that I most certainly do not want to put in 7 BB on the two streets, nor do I ever want to fold. If BK 5 bets, he can be put in the position to do one of the two options above. If BK calls and leads, only 6 bets can go in max, and he definitely gets 6.

[nfscreech]

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All these bets and raise form a dialogue and her 4th bet certainly shouts out 33 or 55 more than J5 or J3 (which BTW are hands with which she may have raised you on the flop with and she didn't here which further indiactes a set).


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I don't think she would raise two pair here. The pot is small, and she has no reason to want to drive the fish and and get it HU with BK.

[DcifrThs]

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You could 5 bet here, but I would just call it down. It's close. A set is a very likely hand at this point. If you think she's messing with you, then 5 bet. I'd move seats, too.

FWIW, for those saying that "there's no way she wouldn't raise 33 or 55 preflop" I think you're on crack. There's no way she would raise those hands.

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in my initial responses i missed the part about the gambler limping in the CO and thought she had position and BK just completed. thats why i thought a) top two is disguised (bk normally JTs is a raise from bk folded to the sb) and b) terri would raise those pairs preflop.

given the other player in the pot its way way closer and probably indeed leaning towards a call...but you really have to consider that insta 3bet w/ KJno spade on J83Xsssx (or whatever) board on the turn that they both know they both know. as a result, i think a worse two plair hand is definately possible putting in that 4th bet. the problem is if you are 6 bet it is so amazingly likely you are beat its not funny.

without any previous hand discussion/reads definately a call...but given the discussion bka nd terri have had id still lean a bit towards a raise b/c at that point, even bottom set gets a bit worried and isn't likely to 6bet.

the questions i have are then does she ever fold after putting in 5 bets? (assuming no) and after putting in 5 bets, getting called on the river isn't the greatest thing in the world so an inconsistent check may be worth it...which then kinda leans toward a turn call.

the fact they talk makes this hand very close imo.

Barron

[skp]

No, you misunderstood. Although it could be my writing that is the culprit. I am talking about J5 and J3 which would give Terri two pairs on the turn. But I am saying that with just a 5 or a 3, she might have raised <u>on the flop</u> instead of calling and letting the third guy stay.

Reading the two streets in conjunction, I am saying that it is more likely that Terri's turn raise and 4 bet represents a set as opposed to J5 or J3. Of course, it could represent other hands too but as between a set and two pairs, a set is more likely.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Just to clarify, do you think that it is more likely for her to take this line when she has a set than when she has two pair? Or do you also mean that, even taking into account the fact that there are a lot more combinations of two pair than sets, you still think it is more likely that she has a set?

[Surfbullet]

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Just to clarify, do you think that it is more likely for her to take this line when she has a set than when she has two pair? Or do you also mean that, even taking into account the fact that there are a lot more combinations of two pair than sets, you still think it is more likely that she has a set?

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I believe it is that skp believes terri would raise most 1pair hands to protect them on the flop, so the only 2pair holdings she could have were made on the flop, not helped by the J. Additionally, bottom 2 may not be as eager to put non-stop bets in on the turn. We are left with T5, T3, and 53 as 2pair possibilities, and 55 and 33 as set possibilities. Also, 53 and to a lesser extent T3 may not be so eager to keep raising knowing that a higher 2pair is possible from bk, while a set will continue to hammer away.

Surf

edit: also the 2pair hands that hold a T become less statistically likely b/c 2 tens are accounted for already.

[skp]

Surfbullet basically clarified what I was trying to say.

I can't seem to express my thoughts clearly today both on the forum and in the crap that I have been dictating at the office all day.

[jck8]

against her id 5-bet this for sure.

[Lestat]

I think you should 5 bet it, although it's tempting to just call and donk the river to see if she wants to pop you like she did in the KJ hand. That would be sweet, because she'd have to at least call your re-raise thinking your both playing off that hand.

Hey, if you lose to set, oh well... Sometimes it doesn't go your way.