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#1
10-12-2005, 11:34 AM
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Re: 80/160 straight on the turn
The problem though I see with the PokerStove range is you have to increase the probability weighting of diamonds, do you not? Or do these calculations already incorporate that? i.e. there are many starting hands without diamonds that would have been folded on the flop, many with diamonds that would have seen the turn.
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#2
10-12-2005, 11:36 AM
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Re: 80/160 straight on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
The problem though I see with the PokerStove range is you have to increase the probability weighting of diamonds, do you not? Or do these calculations already incorporate that? i.e. there are many starting hands without diamonds that would have been folded on the flop, many with diamonds that would have seen the turn. [/ QUOTE ] No you are correct. We would have to lower the probabilities based on him folding some % of non-diamond hands on the flop. I still think we have to go to showdown against his likely range even with the discount. Krishan
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#3
10-12-2005, 11:40 AM
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Re: 80/160 straight on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The problem though I see with the PokerStove range is you have to increase the probability weighting of diamonds, do you not? Or do these calculations already incorporate that? i.e. there are many starting hands without diamonds that would have been folded on the flop, many with diamonds that would have seen the turn. [/ QUOTE ] No you are correct. We would have to lower the probabilities based on him folding some % of non-diamond hands on the flop. I still think we have to go to showdown against his likely range even with the discount. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] I think this balances out a bit with the fact that he would have raised some of the hands that contain diamonds / straight draws. I wouldn't be surprised if the two cases sort of cancel each other out. It is much more important to consider the reverse implied odds of the situation when we are behind I think. No matter what I think your sim shows we have enough equity that a showdown is +EV so let's get there cheaply.
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#4
10-12-2005, 11:38 AM
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Re: 80/160 straight on the turn
I think it is very safe to say that every hand in Krish's range is going to see the turn regardless of whether they contain diamonds or not.
I would further say we can discount the likelihood of diamonds in our opponents hand since he did not put pressure on hero on the flop. The equity sim is very close I think. The only problem with it is that villian can fold a lot of the hands that we beat but can make us put more chips into the pot when he has us beat. We are certainly in a reverse implied odds situation here.
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