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#11
07-06-2005, 12:52 AM
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Re: Squeeze-ish Play... Any good?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Keep in mind this will fail more often than it will work. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] So if I am offered a bet early in a MTT where I risk 600 chips to win 10,000. Do I take it? What if I will only win 25% of the time? I mean, I will be out of 75% of my tournaments. Alright, now reread your quote, and think.......pot odds, and +CEV. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah - they're getting pot odds to call your AJ when they both probably have better hands than you. Listen, I just don't think this is the right spot for the squeeze, my man. And you're likening this situation to betting 600 to get 10,000 is so off-base, I just don't know where to start. FWIW, though, I will agree with you on one thing: I have seen Party players raise UTG with AT or worse. I just don't think this is the right time for a squeeze. Deeper stacks? Maybe. Two limpers vs. an UTG raiser and a call? Sure. But I just don't like it here. Have a good night. 
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#13
07-06-2005, 03:30 AM
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Re: Squeeze-ish Play... Any good?
i don't like this play. yeah, there's going to be a big pot (most likely HU w/ the original raiser,) but his range of hands has you crushed. honestly I feel i overvalue AJ when I'm getting desperate and there's already been a raise from an EP/MP player -- rarely do I get in a positive situation.
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#14
07-06-2005, 03:34 AM
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Re: Squeeze-ish Play... Any good?
another thing to add is if we're comparing this squeeze play to Harrington's example, this squeeze play sucks. in his example, a LAG opened, the chip leader called (and he would have reraised w/ any hand that could call harringtons.) in this example UTG is going to get great odds to call -- part of the point of a squeeze play is too find the original raiser in a bind and have him fold (i.e., he's unsure of the players behind him, thinking he's behind.)
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#15
07-06-2005, 10:30 AM
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Re: Squeeze-ish Play... Any good?
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah - they're getting pot odds to call your AJ when they both probably have better hands than you. [/ QUOTE ] Do you really think anyone other than UG has AJ in real trouble? I just dont see it. I think it is rare to see someone call behind with AQ-AK, JJ+. Do you agree with that? If so, what range do you put UG on? [ QUOTE ] Listen, I just don't think this is the right spot for the squeeze, my man. And you're likening this situation to betting 600 to get 10,000 is so off-base, I just don't know where to start. [/ QUOTE ] I wasnt trying to compare the situations. I was throwing out an over the top hypothetical to prove that "this will fail more often than it will work" is absolutely irrelevant. We are getting apx. 2-1 on a push, we dont need it to work anywhere near 50% of the time for it to be correct. [ QUOTE ] FWIW, though, I will agree with you on one thing: I have seen Party players raise UTG with AT or worse. I just don't think this is the right time for a squeeze. [/ QUOTE ] If UG has a wide range, and 2 callers are likely weaker than AJ (or at least not dominating AJ), please explain why this is -CEV. Please dont say "I dont like it", that accomplishes nothing. I may be wrong, but b/c someone says I am means nothing, give me some numbers and I will listen. Lastly, what does it matter if OP calls this a squeeze play or not? A few posters said it was a bad play b/c it isnt technically a squeeze play. I agree, this is not a squeeze play. I argue that this is a +CEV push. If you disagree, please provide some justification. Thanks [ QUOTE ] Deeper stacks? Maybe. Two limpers vs. an UTG raiser and a call? Sure. [/ QUOTE ] I fold this very quickly with a deep stacks, FWIW
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#16
07-06-2005, 11:09 AM
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Re: Squeeze-ish Play... Any good?
You need to have much deeper stacks for all the players for this play to work. I might pick a spot where someone was not showing strength UTG.
UTG is on a short stack and will call because he's getting 3:1 and you're likely to pick up at least MP3 because of the pot odds. MP1 might get squeezed if MP3 is the type of player to come over the top, but probably both call. The good news is that you don't have to play AJ after the flop since you're all-in.
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#17
07-06-2005, 11:19 AM
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Re: Squeeze-ish Play... Any good?
[ QUOTE ]
You need to have much deeper stacks for all the players for this play to work. I might pick a spot where someone was not showing strength UTG. UTG is on a short stack and will call because he's getting 3:1 and you're likely to pick up at least MP3 because of the pot odds. MP1 might get squeezed if MP3 is the type of player to come over the top, but probably both call. The good news is that you don't have to play AJ after the flop since you're all-in. [/ QUOTE ] I agree that a fold from UG is unlikely. I will also admit that if he calls, there is a decent chance someone else comes along for the ride. So this would be a HORRIBLE play with a crap hand. See, I can agree with you! Now, I dont think a call from UG is all that bad. If it is just UG, our play is correct if he will raise with any hand not in the AJ+, 88+ range. I happen to think his range is a good bit wider than that, and that he will fold a small % of the time (maybe 10-20%). Any thoughts? I know we have different tournament philosophies, so if you just want to give me a few hand ranges and % of time UG and others will call, I would appreciate it. I am only concerned if the play is +CEV, if we can agree on that, we can agree to disagree on wether or not to push.
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#18
07-06-2005, 11:24 AM
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Re: Squeeze-ish Play... Any good?
I agree with A_Plus. AJ is 2-1 against AA-88,AK-AJ. Add in any other hands such as KQ,AT,A9,77,66 and this makes it a clear push. As well as the fact that if anyone else comes along for the ride, AJ has a significant equity edge against them. Also you might get some donk who folds UTG here.
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#20
07-06-2005, 11:49 AM
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Re: Squeeze-ish Play... Any good?
I don't have alot of confidence in getting to any specific ranges without having seen any of the prior hands.
I think there is zero % chance UTG folds and most of the time its 4 ways, and some of the time its 3 ways. Is hero 25% in the center pot. Maybe, its hard to move up and down in multiway pots. Is hero a clear favorite? Probably not. And this brings us back to what is each player likely to commit chips with. As to our styles being different, I have never seen you play, and its presumptuous for you to think my game is w/t.
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