Good power play or silly risk ?

[fuzzbox]

Late stages of MTT

Hero is in lp and is chip lead with 50k (or so).

Blinds are 500/1000

UTG+2 with 25k makes it 3500 to play.
folded to hero who has AKo ... who pushes.

Who likes and who dislikes and why ?

[CardSharpCook]

I don't really like it. There are just so many better ways to play this. True, you may steal the pot right here. But why not just call? You may run into a situation where you can steal on the flop OR, as you have position, you could flop TPTK (39% of the time) and have him betting in to you POSSIBLY for all his chips. He is probably folding AQo (maybe he calls), but he is calling with hand that beat you like TT-AA. I play this with more confidence in my After Flop abilities.

[Lloyd]

I don't like it much either. For one, it's clearly a steal attempt or at least a hand that you really aren't that fond of. If he has something like TT or 99 there's a good chance he's calling as a slight favorite. I would much prefer a normal raise to around 8,000. Now that's a powerful move and if he has anything less than a premium hand he should fold. You also don't want to be playing big pots with another big stack. It's an easy way of losing a huge chunk of your stack. Attack the smaller stacks who are afraid of you. Even though this villain only has half your stack, it's still enough to make a sizable dent.

[fuzzbox]

What would you say if I said it like this ...

Hero has 25k chips - blinds are 500/1000
Hero has 77 UTG+2 and makes it 3500.

Chip leader on the button (with 50k) pushes.

Your move ?

What about 88 ? 99 ? TT ? JJ ?

[CardSharpCook]

I guess it is sort of read dependant, but it is clear that the big stack doesn't have a great hand. 77 might be a fold, but I think that 88 and above are calls. Big stack may turn over 77-QQ, but I expect to see AJ-AK or 22-88.

CSC

[allintuit]

I'm not sure why you wouldn't make this play, especially if you had a halfway decent read on the guy.

[A_PLUS]

This is a tricky spot.

Lloyd, could you explain what you think the benefits of raising to 8-9K would be? I dont think you are necessarily wrong, I would just like to read your logic.

He will still fold his bluff hands, but he may now call with a middlish pair and push a ragged flop. He may also now call AQ as well, but may also push a ragged flop with that.

Im not sure the right play here. I dont hate the call behind or the push either. I think a reraise lessens the value of your having position, but I hate to give up a spot when you may have significant F.E. too.

[Lloyd]

I would say:

Don't play 77 UTG+2 when your stack size is what it is compared to the blinds. And if you're going to raise, you can probably make it less - to about 2,500 which makes it easier to fold if re-raised. I might play 88 and would play the higher pairs. TT-JJ you're definitely calling. 99 most likely. 88 is on the border. It really comes down to putting him on a range of hands, figuring out your odds against that range and comparing to the pot odds, and then take into consideration where you are in relation to other stacks and the money.

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess it is sort of read dependant, but it is clear that the big stack doesn't have a great hand. 77 might be a fold, but I think that 88 and above are calls. Big stack may turn over 77-QQ, but I expect to see AJ-AK or 22-88.

CSC

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you always take a position where you are a likely small favourite (and could be a big dog), and risk your whole tourney on it ?

25k is not a small stack - yet you think that 88 calls ? Would you call with 88 ? I would pass in a heartbeat with this size stack - but be more inclined to call if I had 10k or so.

By the way - late means there are 35 players left (or so). Proper money for the top table only (pay top 70)

[Lloyd]

If you had AA or KK, would you push or make a raise to around 8 or 9K?

If you were him, and a big stack pushed, what range of hands would you put the big stack on? Probably pretty big - AA-55, AK-AQ, maybe a bluff.

If you were him, and a big stack re-raised to around 8K, what range of hands would you put him on? Definitely more narrow. I'd say AA-TT, AK maybe AQ. Certainly a lower probability of bluffing.

If he has a big pair, what does he do if we push. He calls obviously. If we raise, he most likely re-raises and we might be able to get away from the hand.

If he has AQ and we push, he folds. If we re-raise. He might call with decent odds and if an A hits we might just stack him.

If he has a middle pair and we push, he might fold pre-flop. But if he puts us on the range of hands suggested he might just have the right odds to call. If we make a normal raise, he might just fold pre-flop which we'd prefer. That's because the best he can hope for is a coin flip and he doesn't have the right odds to play for a set. Against our range of hands he's probably a slight dog depending upon how big the pair is.