Ed Miller Is Wrong

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
So hypothetical: you're in a tournament with 100 people and you think you're the best player there. You figure you have about a 10% chance of winning.

Would you still call someone all-in on the first hand and a 60% chance of winning?

I still think it would be interesting to see empirical data on exactly what the stack size vs $EV graph looks like. I suspect there's a large linear section around the average stack and some funny things going on around the extremes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I always think I'm the best player in the tournament but I don't think that the best player in the galaxy has even close to 10% chance of winning the whole thing.
I put myself at 3x a normal field and I would beat his chips into the pot if, for instance, I had JdTd on a 8d9d2s flop and he showed me black AA. (about a 60-40 favorite).

[AlwaysWrong]

So your theory is that Ed Miller isn't aware of the chip ev $EV distinction?

In a 250 person tournament with Party's payout structure, getting 10x the chips on the first hand gives you a little over 8x money expectation. (I used ICM with the assumption that everyone else is an average stack to get that number.)

[davekngs]

interesting theory but it is hopelessly wrong

[allintuit]

My sentiments exactly, this is wrong on so many levels...

[zkzkz]

What's ICM? This sounds like what I want to use to explore this topic. How come neither Miller nor Harrington go into the topic of chipEV vs $EV except in the context of being on the bubble for a higher prize? It seems like a fundamental issue.

So you're still clearly +$EV here but you can't just look at the pot odds to figure that. Instead of being up "$20,000" you're up 2.4 times your entry fee (which in his scenario would be $24,000 actually).

So what what stack size gives you an EV of 3x which is just barely enough to warrant an all-in call for a flush draw.

It sounds like you would need a stack size of about 3.5-4x to get that?

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
How come neither Miller nor Harrington go into the topic of chipEV vs $EV except in the context of being on the bubble for a higher prize?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because CEV=$EV for all normal considerations when you are far enough from the bubble.

BTW, the issues you bring here were discussed on this very board about 2974342894 times, and it doesn't seem like you have anything particularly new to say, so don't be surprised if people give you some sh1T about this thread.

And also: welcome to the boards.

[Ben Therre]

Folding AA preflop will get you banned in 10 states that I'm aware of, in Montana we would just hang you.
GL

[AlwaysWrong]

In the early stages of a tournament right through to where you're within spitting distance of the money chip ev is close enough to $ ev that it's not worth talking about in a book focused on practice. If you read Tournament Poker for Advanced Players, which has more of a theoretical focus you'll see Sklansky discuss the distinction in detail.

The reason that there is a significant difference here (10x vs 8x) is that the situation is absurd - you're offered a 10x or bust proposition. If you're in something less absurd like 2x or bust, the difference between CEV and $EV is close enough to zilch that it couldn't possibly matter to your decision.

ICM = Independent Chip Model .. Google it or use 2+2's search feature.

I wrote an article about it here.

[bobman0330]

You're missing a critically important point. Your entire critique is based on the assumption that you can get a better overlay on your chips at some later point. cEV doesn't really matter because you'll have to gamble to win chips later. The main point is that your overlay here is massively larger than most other overlays you can hope to get later on. In other words, think about it as taking a long series of smaller gambles all in a row. Sure, you're more likely than not to bust out, but you're more than likely to bust out anyways.

[Jax_Grinder]

First post under that sn that is. Surely, this is a poster who wanted to float this silliness without sullying his reputation (such as it may be) if noone bought it. THAT was a +ev move on his part.

And, oh yeah...inflection point.