my first preflop question in a long time...

[sthief09]

I think he's saying those are the hands that HE wouldn't play because those hands don't go well with HIS game. he's not saying YOU shouldn't play them

[mc1023]

wow another person on this forum has read Dr. Alspach's articles on poker.

small world

[Alex/Mugaaz]

[ QUOTE ]
the ok thing about hands like J2o is bottom pair with an overcard kicker is a pretty decent draw, and you have a pretty good kicker for trips. I don't see much of a difference between J2o and J5o. since stella is loose and bad he doesn't have to have much of a hand.

the hands I'd fold are any 4+ gap T or lower. so T5, T4, T3, T2, 94, 93, 92, 83, 82, 72. my gut says J6-J2 is probably pretty close, and Q2o a little better than marginal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya but the problem with hands like that is you can easily hit your 2p then get counterfitted.

[DeeJ]

8 people in, if your hand was average you'd have 12.5% equity, you need 7% equity with those junk hands. I haven't pokerstoved it, but I think J3 / 92 etc are unlikely to hit that threshold, and if they do it's very marginal. Make it a 2 or 3 gapper and you can probably call. Still gotta worry about the reraise though.

[adios]

I know this is probably hard to believe but this has been brought up many times over the years. I believe the year was 1997 when I first brought this up on the forum in a post about someone playing Q5o in the big blind in a raised pot in almost exactly the same situation as you mentioned. What's interesting is the responses now as compared to back then. FWIW IMO it can't be that bad to call with any two.

[Dazarath]

[ QUOTE ]
8 people in, if your hand was average you'd have 12.5% equity, you need 7% equity with those junk hands. I haven't pokerstoved it, but I think J3 / 92 etc are unlikely to hit that threshold, and if they do it's very marginal. Make it a 2 or 3 gapper and you can probably call. Still gotta worry about the reraise though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think some people are forgetting that it's not your equity that matters. If you got to see the whole board, then you'd only need 6.67% equity, which would be close to any two. The thing is, you're only paying to see the flop, and if you miss, you're mucking. I think more accurate calculations would be seeing what percentage of flops you like (ie. two pair, trips, straight draw, flush for suited cards, etc). Here's another example I'll use to point out what I'm saying. If I'm in a situation where I have 5% equity, on the flop, from only those backdoor draws, that doesn't mean I can call a bet getting 19:1 on my money, unless I'm guaranteed both cards for that single bet.

[DcifrThs]

alrighty. Dr. Alspach responded and gave me an article he wrote that gets at all the probabilities except for straights and flushes

first though, his comments:

"I am in the midst of three pressure laden situations so I do not have
much time right now to write anything substantial. On the other hand,
my most recent Canadian Poker Player magazine article deals with part
of what you want to know. It is the last article currently at my
website under CPPM. Take a look at that and hopefully you can decipher
what I wrote (under space pressure). (By the way, in the games I play,
I am going to play a fair number of hands at 18-to-1.)

Wednesday I leave for six days in Nova Scotia and on November 2nd I
leave for three weeks in Oz (Australia). The travelling is adding to
the pressure."

so i went to this article and found the following:

given 2 cards of different rank x,y; probability of flopping a:

EDIT: i read the #s from the player holding a pair X,X real #s follow....

1)quads: .0001
2)full: .00092
3)trips: .01571
4)2pairs: .0404
5)onepair: .4041
6)none; .5388

so adding again (with correct figues) 2pr plus we get: .05713

now its wayyyyyyy closer than the 28% EARLIER lol...clearly i didn't doulbe check my work...as i tend not to do for my posts...oh well, sorry guys...so back to the analysis, i think calling with any 2 here can't be that bad...but i still think i'll toss some hands b/c...

Notice though, that Dr. Alspach states that getting 18:1 he'll play "a fair number of hands." that doesn't mean any 2. he's busy now so i'll let him be but id like to knoww hat hands he mucks.

Barron

[etizzle]

since when do you flop a pair 70% of the time

these numbers look way off, or else i am missing something obvious

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]

given 2 cards of different rank x,y; probability of flopping a:

1)quads: .00245
2)full: .0098
3)trips: .1078
4)2pairs: .1616
5)onepair: .7184



[/ QUOTE ]

What are you suggesting these numbers represent? I am missing it. To me it reads like you are saying given any two cards you flop a pair 71.84% of the time, so obviously I don't get what this represents.