AQ facing a reraise

[schwza]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) converter

Button (t1305)
SB (t5020)
BB (t1993)
Hero (t5485)
UTG+1 (t5130)
MP1 (t2655)
MP2 (t6655)
MP3 (t2425)
CO (t2054)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t400</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t2425 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, hero?

thought this was clear, just want to make sure.

FYI, pot odds dictate i should call with 39.9% equity. i got to the table 2 hands ago and neither me nor villain has played yet.

[hurlyburly]

I've been lightening up with AQ a lot lately PF and I've been happier as a result. I fold here because I never beat a dominated hand or manage to suck out on AK.

[transmitt]

I'm gone. I'm having a hard time getting to 40% equity against a guy who I haven't been at the table with, you would have to put a lot of weight on him making a move or playing a smaller A to get there. Beyond the more qualitative I've been burned w/ AQ more than I care to mention.

[Che]

Let's start with a semi-reasonable range of hands for the push:

Hand 1: 38.8738 % [ 00.32 00.07 ] { AQo }
Hand 2: 61.1262 % [ 00.54 00.07 ] { AA-77, AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo }

I think the average Party player is looser than this range so I would often call, but's it's close.

Given that you just got moved to the table, I can see folding or calling as reasonable options.

Later,
Che

[Phil2]

I think this is a good fold, even though I belive that if he has a hand he's serious about, he's not raising this much. I think this is a clear steal. But we really aren't certain about this because we have no reads. Gambling half your stack here is not necessary with AQ.

[schwza]

i mucked. i actually thought it was a pretty clear fold at the time.

[ QUOTE ]
AA-77, AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo

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do you really think the average party player will push AJs against a utg raise from an unknown? i was expecting something more like 99+ / AQ+, and maybe a cold-call from 88.

one problem i always have with these ranges is that AK is 100% to push, so we obviously include it. but the ranges don't let us say "villain will also push A6o 3% of the time." and i'm never sure how to include the random donk factor.

edit to add: it seems like dropping to 2500 will be a real problem here, where going from 5k to 7.5k is not that big a difference. but i guess folding to a reraise also hurts my steal equity too.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

do you really think the average party player will push AJs against a utg raise from an unknown? i was expecting something more like 99+ / AQ+, and maybe a cold-call from 88.


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I'm digressing a bit here, but I'm curious how much credit one should give to an average player about a knowledge of position. I see a lot of posts that talk about putting your opponent on a tighter range because they are raising UTG or calling an UTG raise. Against many opponents this makes sense to me, but I also think that there are tons of opponents who don't think about this at all. I'm wondering which type of player people feel is predominant.

[yecul]

I think he turns over 55 much more often than AA in this spot.

[Phil2]

[ QUOTE ]
I see a lot of posts that talk about putting your opponent on a tighter range because they are raising UTG or calling an UTG range. Against many opponents this makes sense to me, but I also think that there are tons of opponents who don't think about this at all. I'm wondering which type of player people feel is predominant.

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This is a very good point. I think a lot of people play offsuit broadway cards from anywhere and overplay medium pairs. This is why I initally thought that this was a blatant steal-raise. If this player did have concept of position, and you did call, he would be a bit suprised to see you flip over AQo and would most likely be ahead.

[nolanfan34]

I'd probably fold. With no read, I think you have to assume a slightly smaller range than what Che said, I don't think you can put people on AJs as a push hand.

[ QUOTE ]
but i guess folding to a reraise also hurts my steal equity too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually don't mind this, any harm to your steal equity is offset I think by the times opponents try to push you off of hands when you actually have the goods.