Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me

[Luke]

But now, I get it. So Dynasty gets a player like me to fold the best hand, with the weak player what is most likely a club draw maybe holding the 8 .

I failed to realize that Dynasty's non-raise of the weak player's flop bet is key.

Is it really THAT likely that Dynasty is pulling a move like this. So much to the point that you (the Hero) think you're ahead of him on the turn. If so, then I see the reason to 3-bet. I guess I'm just not used to situations like this (playing against an opponent capable of thinking on multiple levels).

Luke

[Joe Tall]

Is it really THAT likely that Dynasty is pulling a move like this. So much to the point that you (the Hero) think you're ahead of him on the turn. If so, then I see the reason to 3-bet.

Clark had to point me into that direction and I think the 3-bet is correct, yes.

I guess I'm just not used to situations like this (playing against an opponent capable of thinking on multiple levels).

Me neither. But this is precisely why it's a great post and precisely why Dynasty posted it. It's beyond most of us and a great teaching thread.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[JTG51]

Is it really THAT likely that Dynasty is pulling a move like this.

Don't forget the pot is getting pretty big and Hero has two outs if he's behind. I'll let someone else do the match, but Dynasty doesn't have to be making a move all that often to make folding a mistake.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you think Dynasty would usually raise hands like QQ and TT on the flop to try to knock Hero's probable overcards out?

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. this is why in my other reply i was thinking of AA or 99 or AQc (or the like) for dynasty...

dynasty could be trying for a free showdown play tooooooo...

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
But situational probability should lead us to downgrade the chances of AA to near zero because he'd have no reason to blow MP out of the pot. KK should also be downgraded slightly, but not eliminated. A straight Bayesian analysis doesn't work.


[/ QUOTE ]

why would Dynasty's turn raise blow the MP out?

Kenny

[CrackerZack]

TT probably, QQ no, you have to put him specifically on AK then, its more likely you want him to continue on. I'll add TT toe the less likely list.

[goofball]

you 3bet preflop, just called my flop checkraise, but now you are raising the turn when the board pairs?

i'm looking down at my jacks and they don't look so hot anymore.
in my mind this turn raise means one of 3 things.

a) the turn hit you.
b) you flopped a big hand
c) you are getting very agressive with something like AK, trying to steal it by representing a.
d) you are overplaying top pair or your weak overpair



a) for the flop to hit you that means you were playing a 7, but you had 3 bet preflop. to think you would 3 bet with something like A7s or 78s or i would have to know you as very LAG. since i don't know that option a doesn't seem likely.

b) with what hands could you have flopped a monster. T8, 99, 77, 66
the above reasoning eliminates T8, 77, 66. and although a tight agressive player can 3bet 99 preflop i wouldn't count it as too likely.
with AA, the flop didn't hit you but it is still a strong hand you could be waitin until the turn to raise. if you are holding AA you will put all the bets in preflop you can (you did), and you might jsut wait until the turn to raise, you did.

c)unless i knew you were a fool i wuoldn't count on you getting way too happy with your overcards

d) again it depends on what i know about you. but i have a hard time seeing anyone but a very agressive player waitin until the turn to raise with TPTK (not to mention 3betting PF with A9s). Someone with TT could be getting agressive to try to drive out higher overpairs and hoping only hands like top pair will call.

anyway, i you are likely to have
AA
TT
99

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
why would Dynasty's turn raise blow the MP out?


[/ QUOTE ]

Because the Hero might 3-bet and knock him out.
-James

[JTG51]

But situational probability should lead us to downgrade the chances of AA to near zero because he'd have no reason to blow MP out of the pot.

But if Dynasty puts the third player on a draw then the turn is often his last chance to collect an extra bet from him, so raising the turn with AA figures to be worth about the same as waiting till the river to raise.

[cwl]

im trying to understand what the main motivation to 3 bet here is. as i see it the 3 bet has value if one of two things is true:
1) its likely enough that JJ is the best hand that an extra bet or two is gained from a likely worse hand.
2) its likely enough that the 3 bet will cause him to fold a better hand or a hand with enough outs to beat us to justify the bet.

im wondering to what extent each of these plays into the decision to 3 bet. is there another reason to 3 bet that im missing? im not optimisitc enough about JJ's chances of being the best hand to want to put more bets than i have too in here unless there is a reasonable chance this will increase my chances of winning the pot but im having a hard time coming up with many hands that i want to fold that would fold to the 3 bet. of dynasty's potential pre-flop 3 bet hands about the only ones that i would think might fold to a 3 bet here would be AK/AQ not of clubs but im not sure how likely these are given how the hand has played out already. anymore explanation from the 3 bet camp would be greatly appreciated.