Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me

[adios]

Thanks for the analysis. Hope this reply is taken in the spirit that it's intended which is a critique of your thinking from my point of view FWIW:

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BUT, its made easier by the preflop play.

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Probably true.

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in my first post on this subject i was convinced that my bayesian analysis was correct and scoffed at the 3betting tactic because dynasty 3bet a good and a weaker player preflop expecting a cap or at least a call. that means his hands with which to get tricky with later on have been limited.

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he would not 3bet here with AcQc and i am pretty sure about that.

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I doubt if it's that limited though.

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so, as per my original post, AcKc, an unimproved AK (since mp is drawing) or overpair are the likely hands. one thing i did not fully take into account was the fact that he CALLED the checkraise. this eliminates TT in my mind no matter what people say. this good play c-r'd dynasty indicating for sure and big pair. TT is the only hand that could be beaten by every c-ring hand held by the early good player. thus TT is gone.

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Don't think I'd make this conclusion Clarkmeister addressed it.

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this leaves JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK as i originally thought. but clark is right that he can make a move here with ak knowing weaky will call down. at my current state of ability i would have folded that live against dynasty and would have been pretty sure i'd be shown QQ-AA or AK. of course i'd be upset one way or the other or happy but this play IS SO CLOSE that theres no way to be 100% either way.

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Given the size of the pot and the possible hands I don't think it's close at all. You're in there for the showdown.

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THIS is the answer to your question: you can't know. you fold on the turn or you 3bet. if he CALLS your 3bet or 4bets you have to be ready to release. you've now indicated with your 3bet you will not release your overpair and are prepared to go the distance. if he calls/raises he is saying ok, well since you won't release i may as well get as many bets as possible from the mp weaky and you or increase the chance of you calling the river. you must then check and fold the river if no A or K hits. this i feel very confident about.

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One of the reasons to consider 3 betting the turn is to knock out the draw IMO. What the extra bets will cost you vs. the chances of knocking out the draw and how much it will save you if you do knock out the draw is what you to evaluate. If this hand were heads up I wouldn't 3 bet in this spot.

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if you 3bet the turn, you check and fold the river as i just prescribed. if dynasty bets the river w/ AK after you check following your 3bet HE is making a mistake. he will NOT be called by the good player enough with a worse hand to make the bet profitable NOR will he release a good hand enough here to make a bluff profitable.

NOW, against a GREAT player, the river bet is more of an issue if it comes as it did, a blank. but the good player (as shown) won't lay down JJ.

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If a blank comes on the river I don't think you lay down JJ in this situation.

[DcifrThs]

Thank you for taking that time to go over my post.

i made some glaring mistakes there, most notably TT call elimination and the river check fold blanked. i addressed both of those with clark and my "oops" post respectively.

this is a region of playing space where the frontier for correct actions is hypersensitive and i'm not used to being in that space so i appreciate all criticisms.

thanks again
-Barron

[SinCityGuy]

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I need to think on higher levels and stay one step ahead of my opponent.

Something that usually isn't required in on-line mid-limits.


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u right. not required

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Good thing, right Kenny? It would be kind of hard to stay one step ahead of your opponents while playing 8 tables at a time. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]