Ace high flop, I have AQ and guess what I fold

gh9801 · #1 08-23-2005, 06:01 PM

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+2 caps, Hero folds...

CO = loose passive
BB = loose passive
UTG+2 = solid TAG

Standard or am I weak?

Nick C · #2 08-23-2005, 06:23 PM

Ah, jeez. I think I'd call for now and hope to spike a queen on the turn.

Of course, that may not be enough anyway. But you do also have your weak backdoor flush. It's hard to put the TAG on anything that isn't currently beating you (a hand that's just a flush draw seems pretty unlikely, given the preflop action and the fact that you hold the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). I suppose A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is possible, though, and A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] can't be completely ruled out, in a pot that was multiway preflop.

CO is a concern too though, of course, and there's a good chance he currently has you beat, even if the TAG doesn't. Also, if CO has a set instead of a hand like A9/A7 or instead of a huge draw, then you're in big trouble.

Hmm. I think it's entirely possible folding is in fact best. I'm not sure.

tyler_cracker · #3 08-23-2005, 06:33 PM

I think the TAG's capping range is going to widen here with two LPs in the pot. Does it widen enough to include 99 (or 77)? Probably not. So there is only one combination of AA left, and 8 combos of AK (including 1 A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3 more including just A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and 2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]).

I'm really worried about CO, as this looks like a set (99/77). Even an LP isn't going to cold-call 3 with A9/A7/97, right?

BB could have anything, but i think most probable is the flush draw.

None of this looks very good for your TPSK. However, you're getting 16:1 on this flop call, so i don't really see how you can fold. You're probably going to have to fold the turn, so maybe you're better off just folding now. But what if, say, the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes off? Now things look different for you because that card isn't in your opponents' hands.

My advice sucks. Just taking a stab at this. Yuck.

gh9801 · #4 08-23-2005, 06:38 PM

Even though I had great odds to see the turn, I was worried that spiking a Q or an A was not good enough (agaisnt a possible set), and that my backdoor draw was dominated by the As or Ks... hence the fold, but at the same time throwing this away on the flop makes me sick

sy_or_bust · #5 08-23-2005, 06:48 PM

I would fold, quickly.

Even if your A/Q outs are sometimes good, you lose a ton when they aren't and cannot play them aggressively in any case. The Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] isn't worth anything because the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is likely out.

Realistically, UTG+2 has a set or AKs, with an overplayed (IMO) AKo at the bottom of his range. So on the one hand you're dominated. What could loose-passive CO have that cold-called? Probably 2-pair or the nut flush draw, when you're often reverse dominated. BB has at least a couple outs too.

I can't think of any reason at all to call.

gh9801 · #6 08-23-2005, 06:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold, quickly.

Even if your A/Q outs are sometimes good, you lose a ton when they aren't and cannot play them aggressively in any case. The Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] isn't worth anything because the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is likely out.

Realistically, UTG+2 has a set or AKs, with an overplayed (IMO) AKo at the bottom of his range. So on the one hand you're dominated. What could loose-passive CO have that cold-called? Probably 2-pair or the nut flush draw, when you're often reverse dominated. BB has at least a couple outs too.

I can't think of any reason at all to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. So this is easier fold than I thought.

CO had 8sTs
UTG+1 had AsKs
BB folded turn