Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me

Dynasty · #1 04-22-2004, 02:07 AM

I think this Mirage 20-40 hand played shortly after midnight on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning is more interesting from my opponent's perspective so I'll present it that way.

The game was fantastic- one of the best 20-40 games I can remember in quite a while with 6-8 players routinely seeing the flop, usually for one bet.

The Hero of this hand is probably the toughest opponent at the table. He can definitely beat this table and can probably hold his own in a semi-tough 20-40 game. He's obviously read some good poker literature.

The hand:

The first few players uncharacteristically fold to Hero in MP. Hero raises with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. A weak, overly-loose player on his immediate left cold-calls. I'm next to act and 3-bet. Everybody else folds back to Hero who calls. Weak player also calls. Three players see the flop for three bets each.

The flop is: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero checks. Weak player bets. I call. Hero check-raises. Weak player calls. I call. Three players see the turn with 8.25 big bets in the pot.

The turn is: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets. Weak player calls. I raise.

Where do you stand? And, what's your play?

Diplomatdcm · #2 04-22-2004, 02:20 AM

I would call and check call the river. It looks like I am beat but the pot is now big enough that I think you need to call down.

DcifrThs · #3 04-22-2004, 01:29 PM

8:1 effective odds. calling here is the worst. if you're with clark you 3 bet. if you're with my original post (i feel now i may be moving into the 3 bet camp) then you fold.
-Barron

Your Mom · #4 04-22-2004, 02:20 AM

Because of the presence of the weak player, it is unlikely you are putting a move on him. You've 3 bet preflop and now raised the turn. It's looking like a big pair from you, Dynasty. I'd fold, but maybe you are trickier in this spot than I think.

Jamie Collins · #5 04-22-2004, 02:31 AM

Hello Dynasty,
I would take the Jim Brier line on this one:

I would fold. If I'm ahead with JJ there are a lot of cards that could make the loose player's hand or your hand on the river. And it doesn't seem very likely you would play AQ/AK/10-10/8-8 this way. If I'm behind I'm drawing pretty slim and there are only 12.25 BB's in the pot if I added correctly. I would estimate there is only a 10% chance JJ is good here, unless you're a lot looser than I thought.

Regards,
Jamie

China Willy · #6 04-22-2004, 03:17 AM

Right, but do you think he would play AA-QQ the way he describes? Especially not QQ, given that he would want to drive out AK if the solid initial raiser holds overcards. I think Dynasty has narrowed the other fella's hand to TT or JJ or QQ and he *either* has AA *or* is trying to get heads up against the weak player with a worse hand than JJ.

I think its the latter.

-CW

Jamie Collins · #7 04-22-2004, 11:12 AM

Hello China,

[ QUOTE ]
Right, but do you think he would play AA-QQ the way he describes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a heck of a lot more likely he waited til the turn to put pressure on MP and loosey with AA-QQ than 88,10-10. And if I'm wrong I would stongly recommend against waiting til the turn with 88 or 10-10. Dynasty's best chance of winning the hand if he's ahead would be to make MP face 2 cold on the flop with his overcards.

What I think is more interesting is if Dynasty would play Ak/q of clubs this way.

But as far as meta-game considerations he won't get MP to fold a better hand to him for the next month if he shows down 10-10, 88, Ak/q here. Which is fine, Dynasty would just have to make a strategy adjustment.

Regards,
Jamie

shemp · #8 04-22-2004, 10:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
there are only 12.25 BB's in the pot... I would estimate there is only a 10%

[/ QUOTE ]

Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

Jamie Collins · #9 04-22-2004, 10:56 AM

Hi shemp,

[ QUOTE ]
Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is my math off?

He's getting 12.25 to 1 on his turn call. He's 22-1 to spike a Jack.

That's too big a gap if he's only good here 10% of the time, even factoring in Loosey's actions and his implied odds when hitting his Jack. Not to mention he could lose to a redraw on the river. Correct?

Regards,
Jamie

SossMan · #10 04-22-2004, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi shemp,

[ QUOTE ]
Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is my math off?

He's getting 12.25 to 1 on his turn call. He's 22-1 to spike a Jack.

That's too big a gap if he's only good here 10% of the time, even factoring in Loosey's actions and his implied odds when hitting his Jack. Not to mention he could lose to a redraw on the river. Correct?

Regards,
Jamie

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're good 10% of the time, you only need 9:1 to call to break even. (Not even counting the small redraw to the J)