How much EV is enough?

[JP Rocks]

I'm writing this after three spectacular beats in a row in the stars $11 MTT (no rebuys). I managed to call all in with the best hand each time against someone who had me covered, only to find myself sent to the virtual rail. (TT v AA on a Txx flop, A, x; AA v KTo preflop, Qxx, A, J; KK v AKo preflop, xxx, x, A). Each of these times, I had a slightly above average stack, and had played conservatively thus far.

My question is this: How big of an advatage do you guys need to call for all your chips in the first hour of a low buy in tourney like this? Usually, I need to decide that I am at least ~70% favorite to call for all my chips, and as such I was pretty happy with how each of those hands went (without being results orientated). Should I be more cautious about getting all in (preflop especially) in the early stages of a low limit tourney like this against opponents who have me covered, or is this just a bad beat post?

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[z32fanatic]

I would refrain from getting it all in preflop with AA or KK, or getting it all in with top set in a raised pot against people who have me covered. I mean what good could come of that? The bottom line is you got outplayed in each of these situations. Work on your tournament game and this won't happen as much.

[TomHimself]

Sometimes you know your beat and you gotta lay it down

[SossMan]

I agree. Especially if they have you covered. If someone can put my tournament life at risk, I'm going to make sure I have not just the nuts, but the nuts on the river.

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
Usually, I need to decide that I am at least ~70% favorite to call for all my chips,

[/ QUOTE ]


You need to seriously rethink your understanding of tournament poker-- especially online tournaments. You aren't Phil Hellmuth.

If you are talking about a large 10 dollar multi with an overall pretty bad structure, just about any edge should be good enough (especially with short stacks late on), unless you are miles ahead of your opponents in skill (which you aren't judging from this post).

[JP Rocks]

Now thats sarcasm!

My question still stands unanswered- After about 1 hour of a $11 freezeout, with an average stack, how big an advantage do you need to put your tournament on the line preflop or on the flop? 70%? 85%? The stone cold nuts? Am I delving too deep into the weak tight quagmire by even asking this question?

I mainly play sngs, where this would be a moot point. However, in a MTT where you have longer and slower blinds, and no short handed play, you dont get forced into taking risks when you are a small favorite or even a small dog. But what is the break point for you between small favorite and big enough favorite to put it all on the line?

[JP Rocks]

Rethink which aspects of tournament play? Please dont just say all, suggest some areas and I'll let you know what I'm doing. I'm just like every other low limit shmo round here, and would really appreciate any advice (preferably constructive) that people are willing to share.

In one sentance, my basic strategy is to play the opposite of how the other players at the table are playing, which is basically tight early, loosening up later on, and stealing like a pirate from about the 6th level on.

[ansky451]

You are not so good that you can pass up a 60% edge, Let alone an 80% edge...

You have to be willing to go broke. You can't pass up good oppurtunities to build up your stack at the (Gasp!) risk of going broke.

[JP Rocks]

Maybe I should rephrase my question. I appreciate that the fundamental idea of poker is to get your chips in with the best hand, and if your opponent sucks out, thats just too bad. You should base you decisions solely on your hand v your opponenets range of hands, and the pot odds. Are you telling me that I should be happy to call all in when I am getting even pot odds.

Ignore the hands I mentioned, what I'm really talking about is having is situations such as KQo in an unraised pot on a flop of Q73, and your opponent pushes. Say you read your opponent for making this play with 77 or 33 10% of the time, Q7, Q3 or 73 30% of the time, a bluff 10% of the time, and a pair either worse than yours or outkicked 50% of the time. Basic pot odds make you a 55% favorite or so (I did the sums quickly), and say you are getting 1.2 to 1 on your money if you call all in, should you call? Is your advantage large enough to warrant the risk of walking to the rail?