I lost just the right amount...Yes?

Carmine · #1 04-04-2005, 05:37 PM

Only two orbits. Villian is average player. Not a maniac.
Did I lose just the right amount or should I have not 3-bet the turn. When he raised the turn I was concerned and when he capped I knew.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP1 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls.

River: (12.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.75 BB

Spicymoose · #2 04-04-2005, 06:27 PM

No problems.

flopmonster · #3 04-04-2005, 06:47 PM

Played it good

hate · #4 04-04-2005, 06:51 PM

Am I the only one that doesn't like this unless I can fold to the cap?

damaniac · #5 04-04-2005, 07:04 PM

That seems like a good idea. Villain is not a maniac, so they probably aren't raising any 2-pair hands here (b/c they raised PF), more than likely they have a set. The question is whether they're going to have something like AK here often enough for us to call down. In theory, I think folding against a known standard/tight/passive player to be right. In practice, I don't know that I do it, or that most people do it.

hate · #6 04-04-2005, 07:11 PM

I know I can't do it, that's why I don't 3-bet the turn here.

Moozh · #7 04-04-2005, 07:37 PM

You can't fold to a turn cap. You have too many outs to spike a board pair to beat another two-pair on the river.

hate · #8 04-04-2005, 07:59 PM

If you think the board pairing will do anything other than give him quads or a boat, I think your reading skills need some improvement.

Moozh · #9 04-05-2005, 04:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you think the board pairing will do anything other than give him quads or a boat, I think your reading skills need some improvement.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be right, but I'm still curious how certain you need to be to make this fold. Let's run some numbers assuming you only call the river bet if the board pairs.

At the time of our decision, the pot is 11.75bb.

Regardless of whether our villian has a 2-pair or set, there are 10 cards to pair the board with 46 to choose from. Thus, 78.3% of the time the board will not pair and you lose 1bb.

Of the times the river pairs the board and your opponent has 2-pair, 4 will give the villain a boat, 6 will give you a better 2-pair. The villain will get a boat 8.7% of the time and you will lose 2bb. You will get a better two pair 13.0% of the time and win 14.75bb. Let's make P be the percent of times the villian has a set.

78.3% of the time you lose 1bb.
P * 21.7% of the time you lose 2bb.
(1-P) * 8.7% of the time you lose 2bb.
(1-P) * 13.0% of the time you win 14.75bb.

Solving for P to break even on our call:

(.783*-1) + (.217*P*-2) + (.087*[1-P]*-2) + (.130*[1-P]*14.75) = 0

-.783 - .434P - .174 + .174P + 1.9175 - 1.9175P = 0

2.1775P = .9605

P = 44%

Thus, the villain must have a set more than 44% of the time for it to be correct to fold to the 3-bet. Viewing the action, you're probably good to fold on the turn.

wrto4556 · #10 04-05-2005, 05:35 AM

am I the only one that hates this turn 3 bet?

He raises you on the big streets, he's got you beat too many times to make 3 betting right.