All-In vs. Chip Leader?

As it seems like you thought in your orginal post that he's been looking to play back at you for stealing too much then you made a good call. There's nothing wrong with getting your chips in with the best hand. You win this pot and it probably makes stealing easier as this win probably makes you chip leader and shows everybody that when you raise you're willing to all the way with it. A fold here encourages more reraises.

[Exitonly]

1) 4bb is really overkill here, you're committing way more than you have to to steal. a 2.5bb is more than enough at these stages, and it'll make it an easier fold if he pushes.

2) Fold, and not close.

[petvan]

I think this is a little results oriented in my mind. In any case, coin flipping with the chip leader (which is plus or minus 5% what the set of ranges you might put him on is likely to produce) is not really what I'd want to do with 3rd stack. Much better to play hard on shorts/mediums and build vs taking a 50/50 here.

Maybe others will say that getting your chips in with an edge is all that matters, and doubling now sets you up to go deep, but I think you can't reliably know you'll be ahead here, and it just seems silly to put a very useful stack at risk when you have time to wait on better spots

just my .02. Welcome flames on this opinion ;-)

P

[DyessMan89]

Well, most posters will say to post this ... but Im calling this down. I think this is one of those rare instances where taking a current nuetral or -EV situation will be surpassed by much greater +EV in the future. This is all theory, however, and kind of correlates to Gigabets theory. (well, sort of) I dont think you are in that bad of a shape, theres some good money in the pot, and if you win this, I think youll have a physcological advantage over your opponents. Once they see that you've raised and CALLED down an all-in with A8o, they are going to think twice about defending their blinds by coming over the top with JT or QJo.

Theyll only play there top hands. They arent going to take a stand with a borderline hand. This gives you MANY more opportunities to steal blinds in the future. Not to mention you have the ability to weild a huge stack if you win this. (but the again, you have to know how to play a huge stack well. Also, youll have a much greater chance of finishing where the real money is at) I havent even discussed the fact that the big stack has seen so many of your blind steals, and could be pushing with something far less than A8.

[RiverDood]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, most posters will say to post this ... but Im calling this down. I think this is one of those rare instances where taking a current nuetral or -EV situation will be surpassed by much greater +EV in the future. This is all theory, however, and kind of correlates to Gigabets theory. (well sort of)

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, Gigabet's contention is that it's worth trying a slightly -EV play to build chips when you've already got the big stack and are putting maybe 30%-60% of it at risk. If you win, you can steamroller the competition. And if you lose, you're still alive, with enough chips that you can last a while and maybe stage a comeback.

That's exactly what the big stack is doing here -- and tragically for our Hero, it worked out in the big stack's advantage. Unfortunately, as the smaller stack, you don't get to stay alive on both forks of the decision tree. You bust out if the hand doesn't work out for you.

[zoobird]

Interesting. I just remembered that the first or second time I stole the exact comment the chip leader made was "You're stealing...but 4 BB isn't enough. You need to make a bigger raise". I responded "probably right." just to be agreeable, and he said "No...definitely right.".

I agree with you (and the other posters)that it probably wasn't worth it to call his all-in here, but I think it may be closer than you think. In the time I've been posting here, you've probably been the person who helped me the most, in terms of both frequency and quality of responses to my questions. That said, I've noticed one big difference in how you play compared to most of the other frequent and well-respected posters...you don't blind steal as aggressively. In the past I've noticed this in situations where stacks are small, so I'm not sure whether it applies here, but its been a really clear pattern that you don't suggest blind stealing much and you also give people credit for very strong hands in situations where they may be stealing without much of anything. Just an observation...not sure it makes your advice about this hand any less valid.