WSOP $10k New Orleans -- How to play around the Bubble?

[wins_pot]

Ok, I was chip leader (w/ Howard Lederer) with 33 players remaining and finished in 21st place.
PlacePoker PlayerChip Count
1Brandon Adams$ 170,000
2Howard Lederer$ 170,000
3Nick Mao$ 155,000
4Antonio Esfandari$ 150,000
I went from 170000 to 70000 chips in 1hr45min (the 800-1600 200 ante rount and 15min of the 1000-2000 300 ante round). My analysis of the last day (when I had 70000 chips) is pasted at the bottom of this post. Just before the 800-1600 round, I took a 70000 pot from David Williams (seated directly to my left); from that point on, David ravaged my chip stack. For background, here was the 70k pot: I complete the SB, David checks, flop is 67K rainbow. I check with 45, David checks. Turn is an 8. I bet 5k, david raises to 13k. I think about re-raising but decide that I am better off calling and betting out the river (where I'll fold to a re-raise). The river comes an ace, I bet out 20k,David calls (he claims he had trip 7s, I suspected two pair). After this hand, most players would shut down when near the bubble, but David (whatever previous posters might say) is a fearless and extremely intelligent player. Here are some questions....
1. under what conditions (if any) might limping pre-flop be correct if you are the chip leader on the bubble and have aggressive players to your left? I didn;t ever limp, but I can see some good arguments for it.
2. if you open for a raise with a marginal hand (say QJ) and get a caller behind you, when should you make a play on the flop if it doesn;t hit and when should you go in check-fold mode? say you open with QJ, Williams flat calls with a big stack on the button, then the flop comes 10-8-4. do you bet this flop?
3. here is an actual hand. i complete the small blind with K4 spades. David checks the BB. flop is 345rainbow. I check-raise to 14k, then he makes it 40k (and claims A2). how else might i have played it?
4. another hand....
SB to my right completes with a 60k stack behind. I check J7 with Jack of spades (I should have put in a stiff raise here, but Williams had made me passive at this point). flop comes 852all spades, check-check. turn is 9. SB bets 5k. i raise to 12k with a a flush draw and gutshot, SB calls. ( i think a call, then a bluff on the end is better play for me here). river is a king (still on 3 spades on board). SB checks the river. should i check here for a probable loss, put in a small bluff, or put in a big bluff? remember we are on the bubble
5. last actual hand.
at this point david williams owns me.
he is now one of the chip leaders and i'm down to 90k.
i open for 6k in the 1-2 round, he raises to 18k, i FOLD QQ. he shows AK and says he would call. i believe him. at this point there were 29 players left (27 paid, 20 go to tournament of champions).
all guidance is appreciated. -brandon78


Boys,

Yesterday was a fun time, but I busted out at the end of the
1000-2000 (300 ante) round with QQ against KK (7-handed). I was in
the cutoff, the guy to my right raised to 6k, and I pushed for 50k
more with QQ. The guy in the BB had picked-up KK and called. I had
frequently re-raised the initial raiser on the previous day and taken
down a lot of pots; this is the main reason I pushed all-in. If I
make it 20k to go, he might push with AK. I take him off that hand
and a few others by pushing in myself. I felt yesterday and still
feel today that calling and taking a look at the flop was an inferior
strategy, but I might be wrong about that.
Looking back at the the day before yesterday (when I was co
chip-leader with Lederer with 33 players remaining), my main thought
is that I'm lucky I didn't go broke on the bubble given the way the
cards fell. I was destined to lose a lot of chips in the 800-1600
(200 ante) round.
Looking back on yesterday, I have to conclude that I didn't stick
with my strategy. I sat down with pen and paper for 3 hours after day
2 and thought about day 3 strategy. Lederer's optimal strategy was to
open a lot of pots pre-flop with marginal hands; mine was to re-raise
all-in with marginal hands.
It looks good that I went out with QQ against KK in a seven-handed
game, but the fact of the matter is that if I had played correctly I
should have either a) had a large chip stack at the point (70k + x ,
instead of 57k) or b) gone out much earlier with a hand like 78-suited
against a player who called my all-in re-raise.
A re-raise all-in at that stage aims to take down the pot and
increase your stack by 11400 (SB+BB+ante+initial raise). The only
things that should matter are:
1) what hands are you representing
2) what can your opponent call you with
3) given that he calls you, what is your chance of winning
AK, in most instances, can't call, but if they do they are 57% against
56-suited and 44% against QQ. against AA or KK, you are better off
with 56-suited (and many, many other hands) than with QQ.
Bottom line: I played my cards instead of my opponents, and
therefore didn't play aggressively enough in the 3rd day.

Brandon

[Rushmore]

Man, that is a shitty feeling, when you lose your heart just that little bit and one player in particular, who happens to be an aggressive player sitting to your immediate left, makes you his bittch. Those among us who play relatively tight probably know this feeling; I know I do.

Obviously, you need to draw a line in the sand, and better sooner than later, I'd say. I'm a little surprised that you let it get to the point where you mucked those queens. It sounds like the guy's owning you, and he's playing aggressively, so it sure sounds like a push, whether he woulda called or not. Beats the hell out of getting bled to death.

Anyway, as for another question, limping preflop is not a strategy I can seem to understand and employ well. I know that folks do it, but I just can't seem to, because to me, limp-folding is like painting a target on your forehead. Obviously, done well, you can set up a big play by limp-folding several times and then just cricifying the predatory player who targets you, but hey--who's got the patience for THAT??! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[TomHimself]

surpised u folded the queens too [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[wins_pot]

with the queens, i should have seen a flop, then pushed if it was low, but risk aversion was setting in at that point. -ba

[CrazyN8]

Brandon...what did you look like? wearing? I came by and watched some of the first 3 days. I was the guy in shorts and a polo-type shirt with the hot brunette.

With 27 left it looked like David Williams had half the chips (he didn't but he had a mountain). I figured he would win.

[MrX]

If input is what you want..well,

I think you butchered both your QQ hands.

Laying down hand 1 was weak.

Hand 2, you have a premium hand and a 25 BB stack and you push preflop. That is a waste of a premium hand. It is immaterial you ran into KK, that is just bad luck. And I do recognize that money was destined to get in the center that hand anyway, but that doesn;t mean you played the hand optimally.

ordinarily you pick up the blinds with that bet and with a 25 BB stack that is not that crucial.

X

[adios]

Seems like you played well. Definitely take this insight with a "grain of salt" as I don't have any experience as the chip leader in a big NL HL tourney.

You wrote:

[ QUOTE ]
After this hand, most players would shut down when near the bubble, but David (whatever previous posters might say) is a fearless and extremely intelligent player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure you realized this so excuse me for repeating the obvious but there's no reason I can think of for David Williams would be concerned about not making any money in the tourney. Winning the tournament is his only concern I would think.

[ QUOTE ]
1. under what conditions (if any) might limping pre-flop be correct if you are the chip leader on the bubble and have aggressive players to your left? I didn;t ever limp, but I can see some good arguments for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

It sometimes discourages players from raising with marginal raising hands for heads up situations as opposed to playing a pot 3-way, 4-way or more.

[ QUOTE ]
3. here is an actual hand. i complete the small blind with K4 spades. David checks the BB. flop is 345rainbow. I check-raise to 14k, then he makes it 40k (and claims A2). how else might i have played it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Notice how Ace anything fits into this flop. I mean what's his biggest concern when you checkraise? I would think a set but maybe he figured you'd be coming in raising with a pair pre-flop.

[ QUOTE ]
5. last actual hand.
at this point david williams owns me.
he is now one of the chip leaders and i'm down to 90k.
i open for 6k in the 1-2 round, he raises to 18k, i FOLD QQ. he shows AK and says he would call. i believe him. at this point there were 29 players left (27 paid, 20 go to tournament of champions). all guidance is appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not call the raise and see the flop?

[ QUOTE ]
It looks good that I went out with QQ against KK in a seven-handed
game, but the fact of the matter is that if I had played correctly I
should have either a) had a large chip stack at the point (70k + x ,
instead of 57k) or b) gone out much earlier with a hand like 78-suited
against a player who called my all-in re-raise.
A re-raise all-in at that stage aims to take down the pot and
increase your stack by 11400 (SB+BB+ante+initial raise). The only
things that should matter are:
1) what hands are you representing
2) what can your opponent call you with
3) given that he calls you, what is your chance of winning
AK, in most instances, can't call, but if they do they are 57% against
56-suited and 44% against QQ. against AA or KK, you are better off
with 56-suited (and many, many other hands) than with QQ.
Bottom line: I played my cards instead of my opponents, and
therefore didn't play aggressively enough in the 3rd day.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I think this is basically it. I will say that if not making any money was a big concern then tighten up a lot. Yeah you'll blind off a fair amount of chips but you probably will have a threatening stack by the time everyone is in the money. With that said, when your not that worried about being shut out of the money, against a player like David Williams you're going to have to gamble because he's forcing you to do so. IMO you can't play cat and mouse with this type of player, gamble but gamble intelligently.

[wins_pot]

adios -- thanks for the input.
X -- i am fairly certain that pushing was the right play on day 3.

i should have called to see a flop with QQ on day 2, no question. at that point,david had shut me down. if i push with QQ pre-flop, i'm pretty sure that he calls with his AK (i don't know if i mentioned that he showed AK). many players fold there, but as i said, david is willing to gamble with you.

one other piece of background: the top 18 are guaranteed entry into the 100 player $2mill ESPN freeroll.

for the guy who wanted a description...
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_tour...;image_id=1334