Hail the overbet

[wins_pot]

Tough spot.
You are way ahead or way behind.
It's very much dependent on your opponent, but I think you should lay it down.
The overbet itself often makes you change your read. example.....
Hand #4372836-18751 at Blundeston (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 24/Feb/05 21:54:14

Brandon78 is at seat 0 with $2662.50.
sillyhead28 is at seat 5 with $5796.
The button is at seat 0.

Brandon78 posts the small blind of $25.
sillyhead28 posts the big blind of $50.

Brandon78: 5c 8c
sillyhead28: -- --

Pre-flop:

Brandon78 raises to $100. sillyhead28 calls.

Flop (board: 8d 3h 4c):

sillyhead28 checks. Brandon78 bets $200.
sillyhead28 raises to $600. Brandon78 calls.

Turn (board: 8d 3h 4c 7s):

sillyhead28 checks. Brandon78 checks.

River (board: 8d 3h 4c 7s 3s):

sillyhead28 bets $3300. Brandon78 goes all-in for
$1962.50. sillyhead28 is returned $1337.50
(uncalled).

Showdown:

sillyhead28 shows 2c Kc.
sillyhead28 has Kc 8d 3h 7s 3s: a pair of threes.
Brandon78 shows 5c 8c.
Brandon78 has 8c 8d 3h 7s 3s: two pair, eights and threes.

Hand #4372836-18751 Summary:

$.50 is raked from a pot of $5325.
Brandon78 wins $5324.50 with two pair, eights and threes.
basically the thinking here was....
-if he has a 5-6 straight, he can't bet out the river. board is
paired, check-call is for sure the dominant strategy.
-he knows i didn't make a straight, b/c i'm not going to check a
straight on the turn given his pot-size reraise (and possible trips)
on the flop. therefore, if he did have a boat, there is no way he can
make a big bet on the river for value b/c it's not getting paid off.
-also, the overbet was weird. that said, i've seen it from others
when they have the goods.

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems unconventional to lead out a set and then shut down on the turn;

[/ QUOTE ]

this is one of my favorite lines to take vs. the preflop raiser.

[kagame]

funny i keep betting the turn and usually get called most of the time by overpairs or top pair...

[youngin20]

i think pretty much everyone answers have been the same. results?

[Jason Strasser]

I folded. He showed a bluff.

[technologic]

did he do a scotty ngyuen impression and go, "oh i thought we play blackjack!"

[mgsimpleton]

the other reason that leans towards bluff (i didn't indicate any in my original response, but this was partly in response to the comment that he probably puts hero on AK) is that he would make this play if he puts hero on AK and can't beat it... which you see a lot of the time, i think. i don't know, it's easier now that the results are here but like everyone else said, i think it's rare to check the river if he really has a good hand, he's giving up so much value given your check behind on the turn.

[technologic]

i still think folding is fine...i've seen plenty of people pull the i'm betting so much i'm begging for you to fold move but instead i have a monster from opponents who like to be tricky all the time. plays like this will catch up to him i think.

[Komodo]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
I folded. He showed a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly as expected. Huge overbets are always superhands or superbluffs.

[KaneKungFu123]

[ QUOTE ]
I folded. He showed a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

yep.