hit set on uni-suited flop

Pablo · #1 12-01-2005, 10:48 AM

Do you bet this flop or wait for a safe card on the turn?

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)

WalkAmongUs · #2 12-01-2005, 10:49 AM

I'd go ahead and bet because you do have a large equity edge over anything except a made flush. In the event you are behind a made flush you have a bunch of outs to the full house.

Pablo · #3 12-01-2005, 11:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd go ahead and bet because you do have a large equity edge over anything except a made flush. In the event you are behind a made flush you have a bunch of outs to the full house.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my dilemna; I knew I had a large equity edge, but thought the extra 4 or 5 small bets going into the pot would give everybody odds to call to the river. Flawed thinking?

jaxUp · #4 12-01-2005, 10:50 AM

bet/cap flop. put in 2-3 bets on big streets UI.

Pablo · #5 12-01-2005, 11:07 AM

For better or worse, I checked the flop. When the player to my right bets the turn, should I try to protect my hand with a raise, or hope for overcalls?

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: (5 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero ?

jaxUp · #6 12-01-2005, 11:09 AM

I'd go a head and cap the turn and put in one bet on the river.

#7 12-01-2005, 01:58 PM

Hero raises. No question. Charge the SB and BB two bets to call with their one-heart flush out. Slowplaying sets is death. You should have been more aggressive on the flop too.

ScottieK

silly_monkey · #8 12-01-2005, 02:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
For better or worse, I checked the flop. When the player to my right bets the turn, should I try to protect my hand with a raise, or hope for overcalls?

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: (5 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

*grunch*

You need to bet/3-bet/cap this flop. Someone probably has has at least one heart, and there's a small chance that someone has two (less than 1 in 4). You have a ton of equity here, probably at least 50 percent. Jam as many bets as you can get in on the flop. Even if someone flopped the flush or makes it on the turn, you still have ten outs to fill up or make quads on the river.

On the turn. Given the way you played this hand you must raise here. Make the rest of the field pay to draw out. If he 3-bets just call. You DO NOT want overcalls here. If you just call you are giving great odds for people to call with a single heart.

If he just calls the turn lead the river if it isn't a heart. If he raises you are in a tough spot, but I would call. If he 3-bets the turn I would c/f the river UI. If the river is a heart, I think you can check and fold.

Pablo · #9 12-01-2005, 11:10 AM

Comments on all streets welcome.

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: (5 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, MP2 folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (11 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

jaxUp · #10 12-01-2005, 11:23 AM

overall this hand was way underplayed. The probability of someone having a made flush on the flop is not even close to high enough to scare us too much. What you may have been scared of was that there are still 2 cards left to come, and you don't want to put in a lot of bets only to be sucked out on. 35% of the time the flush will come in, the rest of the time we win the pot. This means that as long as we're not putting in more than 2/3 of the pot it is fine to raise like mad (until we believe there's a significant chance we're behind). Since it is not possible to be putting in more than 1/2 the pot, you should bet/raise like mad until you have good reason to believe you're behind.