Party QJs

bobbyi · #1 11-11-2005, 04:04 AM

Looking at the hand now, my river call seems pretty bad. Yes? Any other streets interesting?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)
Stats legend: (VPIP, PFR, AF (# hands))

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP (37/25.5/3.5 (180)) calls, CO (56/17.5/.8 (53)) 3-bets, 1 fold, SB (22/15/2.3 (2000)) caps, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (17 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks.

Turn: (8.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, MP calls, CO folds.

River: (11.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, MP calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

TheMetetron · #2 11-11-2005, 04:06 AM

Yes, the river call sucks.

wackjob · #3 11-11-2005, 04:08 AM

fold river.

admiralfluff · #4 11-11-2005, 04:08 AM

With a fairly tight 3 bet, and tight cap I'm tempted to fold this pf. I think I would definitely fold if the capper was the button, and I think preflop is the most interesting part of this hand.

With a 2k hand sample on SB, I think he has AK+ here almost always, so the river is an easy fold for me.

bobbyi · #5 11-11-2005, 04:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
With a fairly tight 3 bet, and tight cap I'm tempted to fold this pf. I think I would definitely fold if the capper was the button, and I think preflop is the most interesting part of this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
When I call the cap, I'm getting almost 8:1 (I'm assuming no one is about to fold) with no chance of further raises and there is probably going to be a ton of action (the only guy who didn't put in raises preflop is a lag anyway) if I hit the board. How can QJs not be profitable here?

admiralfluff · #6 11-11-2005, 04:39 AM

I think that the capping range of the SB is much tighter than leader's sim. The best we could hope for would be a lineup like TT and AK, but most of the time we are dominated. I think there are a fair amount of reverse implied odds with this hand, as you will almost always be drawing on the flop. Having position on the seemingly straightforward capper may make the hand easier to play postflop, but it also narrows his capping range. I don't know. It's close for me, and I would really like to know if I'm way off here.

edit:
another thing to consider is that getting 8:1 for 2SB is quite different from getting 8:1 for 1SB in this type of hand.

imported_leader · #7 11-11-2005, 04:10 AM

I think you can fold the river. He's not capping anything PF here that you have beat except maybe the occasional 99 and if he has that I don't know why he checked the flop. MP also has you beat some percentage of the time.

#8 11-11-2005, 04:14 AM

I'm new to HUSH so please bear with me. Constructive criticism concerning what I miss what is special to hush is very welcome [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

To me it looks as if SB missed his Check/Raise. He might have a PP higher than T and figure the LAGs who acted in front of him raised and cold-called on two high cards. He definitly isn't afraid of the K so I would call the turn. But I don't think that split Js are good enough. On the other hand, the pot is huge. But I don't think SB's capping range from SB will go much further than AA-TT, AK (AQs maybe but unprobable). And you are behind all of those.

imitation · #9 11-11-2005, 04:18 AM

Fold preflop

imported_leader · #10 11-11-2005, 04:27 AM

I'm not sure how helpful this is but:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,791,268 games 137.678 secs 151,013 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 19.0179 % 18.42% 00.60% { QsJs }
Hand 2: 18.7590 % 17.68% 01.08% { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 26.0296 % 24.30% 01.73% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 4: 36.1935 % 34.34% 01.85% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }