Waiting for turn - 2 examples

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Since villains are calling two cold on the turn, they'd probably call two on the flop so a raise would've been better.


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If i knew they are going to call 2 cold regardless on either street, won't I get more money in the pot raising the turn rather than raising the flop & having it checked to me for just 1 turn bet? It seems this way I am (1) getting more money in the pot and (2) getting more in teh pot when I have a better chance to win it with only 1 card to come.

[bozlax]

Never mind the last sentence. I was confusing the 2 hands. I still don't see a flush in the way Hand 2 was played.

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Never mind the last sentence. I was confusing the 2 hands. I still don't see a flush in the way Hand 2 was played.

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Based on what? UTG being a call station the whole way and coming alive on the river? I would pray for a raggedy 2-pair as well, but players on the beginner tables are usually passive / loose and will draw their lone ace to the river with a connected suited board ...

[MrWookie47]

There is a possible flush draw, and a possible straight draw. That's it. It's not a given that there's a flush draw, and the straight draw is low, making it less likely. In SSH, waiting was called for in the TT hand because there was a straight draw, a flush draw AND overcards that could come, significantly reducing the equity of TT. There aren't that many scare cards in your AJ hand.

[SocialWelfareIV]

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If i knew they are going to call 2 cold regardless on either street, won't I get more money in the pot raising the turn rather than raising the flop & having it checked to me for just 1 turn bet? It seems this way I am (1) getting more money in the pot and (2) getting more in teh pot when I have a better chance to win it with only 1 card to come.

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Two reasons: One, you're hoping that someone catches up on the turn with two pair, hits an A or K, and you get 3 bets in on the turn in addition to the 2 on the flop.

Two, you don't want villains with backdoor draws to see a (fairly cheap) turn card. UTG most likely caught a flush draw on the turn and ended up getting 12.5 to 2 or so on his first turn call. SB and BB were probably going to the turn no matter what the action was on the flop -- maybe not the case with UTG.

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There is a possible flush draw, and a possible straight draw. That's it. It's not a given that there's a flush draw, and the straight draw is low, making it less likely. In SSH, waiting was called for in the TT hand because there was a straight draw, a flush draw AND overcards that could come, significantly reducing the equity of TT. There aren't that many scare cards in your AJ hand.

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I was thinking more along the lines of this hand where "da man" waits for the turn with an overpair.

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...t=all&vc=1

Is this example way with an overpair way different than my example with TP?

[MrWookie47]

Thanks for the link. I'm going to have to think some more.

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Two reasons: One, you're hoping that someone catches up on the turn with two pair, hits an A or K, and you get 3 bets in on the turn in addition to the 2 on the flop.


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I am kind of confused. If I wanted someone with an A or a K to catch up to me, why would raising the flop help this situation? A lot of players might toss their overcard to 2 bets cold, so if having players catch up is my motivation, raising the flop seems counter-productive, especially if I want them to stick around with just an overcard.

Also, wanting people to catch up sounds liek the opposite of :

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Two, you don't want villains with backdoor draws to see a (fairly cheap) turn card. UTG most likely caught a flush draw on the turn and ended up getting 12.5 to 2 or so on his first turn call. SB and BB were probably going to the turn no matter what the action was on the flop -- maybe not the case with UTG.

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It's kind of hard at the table to allow players with an A or K overcard to stick around & push out the backdoor flush drawers. Also, virtually any flop it is conceivable for someone to have a backdoor flush draw, so if my goal is to always "push out backdoor flush draws" I would never wait for a turn raise ...

I do agree that he had the odds on the turn to draw ... but to me it seemed in this hand that the only thing that could beat me is a running flush draw or maybe some crappy str8 draw (both of which I would have re-draws to my boat to beat) ... potentially building a bigger pot on the flop seemed to have higher expected return (even though I risk losing to a running draw which, unfortunately, did happen this time).

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There is a possible flush draw, and a possible straight draw. That's it. It's not a given that there's a flush draw, and the straight draw is low, making it less likely. In SSH, waiting was called for in the TT hand because there was a straight draw, a flush draw AND overcards that could come, significantly reducing the equity of TT. There aren't that many scare cards in your AJ hand.

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I was thinking more along the lines of this hand where "da man" waits for the turn with an overpair.

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...t=all&vc=1

Is this example way with an overpair way different than my example with TP?

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Yes the example is a little different b/c your top pair happens to be an ace.

IMO you should not be waiting for the turn in hand 1. 1) You are losing too much value. 2) You have a decent chance of protecting your hand from the two players left to act with a flop raise (you're giving them 8.5:1, if you wait for the turn you would be giving them 7:1), and by just calling you are giving them the chance to pick up a draw that they can call profitably with on the turn.

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There is a possible flush draw, and a possible straight draw. That's it. It's not a given that there's a flush draw, and the straight draw is low, making it less likely. In SSH, waiting was called for in the TT hand because there was a straight draw, a flush draw AND overcards that could come, significantly reducing the equity of TT. There aren't that many scare cards in your AJ hand.

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I was thinking more along the lines of this hand where "da man" waits for the turn with an overpair.

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...t=all&vc=1

Is this example way with an overpair way different than my example with TP?

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Yes the example is a little different b/c your top pair happens to be an ace.


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It seems to me that my hand is much more vulnerable than Ed Miller's hand in that post. Sure people could pick up a draw on the turn, but with a raise on the flop MP1 and MP2 are getting 5.5:1 odds on the flop which is more than enough for their str8 or flush. With the way the action worked out I guess they're still getting 5:1 on the turn, but with only 1 card to come I feel my top pair has a much higher edge than it did on the flop. Also, bottom / middle pairs would be much quicker to release when facing 2 or 3 cold on the turn rather than just 1 (protecting my hand from those pesky 5-outers).

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IMO you should not be waiting for the turn in hand 1. 1) You are losing too much value. 2) You have a decent chance of protecting your hand from the two players left to act with a flop raise (you're giving them 8.5:1, if you wait for the turn you would be giving them 7:1), and by just calling you are giving them the chance to pick up a draw that they can call profitably with on the turn.

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I think I am more worried about the draws on the board than the potential draws they might pick up ...