Did I chicken out with my flush draw on the turn?

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
If raising the flop is a mistake it's still clearly +EV, and I'm not even sure it's a mistake. You're a favorite HU against his range right now (you're even a solid favorite if he has AA/KK and still have 40% equity if he has queens) and on this flop you're nearly ALWAYS going to get at least one cold-caller.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just pokerstoved it, and here are the assumptions and results:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

740,460 games 0.750 secs 987,280 games/sec

Board: Qc 8c Jh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 55.7155 % [ 00.56 00.00 ] { QsQh }
Hand 2: 37.8376 % [ 00.34 00.04 ] { AcTc }
Hand 3: 04.0630 % [ 00.00 00.04 ] { JdTd }
Hand 4: 02.3839 % [ 00.02 00.00 ] { random }

I still think the call is better. That being said, if one of the other two clowns gets a wild hair up his ass and checkraise 3 bets, a cap is good. It might sounds strange, but I think you understand how I could not like the raise on this flop but at the same time love the cap.

[ QUOTE ]
anyone else muck this PF?

[/ QUOTE ]

not I

EDIT: nm I was thinkin 6-max, where I raise it up all day long

[Sand]

My two cents (more like centavos). I only like the turn play on this hand. Everything else has issues.

Preflop is an easy fold, unless the guy is an 80VPIP/50PFR guy. Then you would raise.

Flop raise drives out the folks you want in. Put those two on your buddy list - they're lovely. I do like the flop cap. On the flop you have about 33% equity give or take in the pot. Once you know those two are coming along for the ride you are making a profit by capping. Kudos.

Turn is fine. I would have kicked the dog because UTG+1 likely just boated up.

Others are saying the river raise is standard. I don't like it. Unless UTG+1 is an idiot, you can reduce his likely hands down to just a few choices:

AA - 3 ways
KK - 6 ways
QQ - 3 ways
JJ - 3 ways
88 - 1 way

Of those possiblilies you like 9 of them and hate 7 of them. I would think it unlikely that you would get a lot of cold callers on the river (you got 2/3 - amazing). Most of the time you will drop off those guys. If the villain has QQ, JJ, or 88 you will get repopped on the river.

The river play is anything but "standard". It all depends on the cold callers (assuming the villain is sane). He is betting into you on a straightening, flushed, and possibly boated board. I would give him a double chance of the QQ, JJ, and 88 based on this. (9 ways you like the outcome, 14 you hate it). HU is a slam dunk decision here - you call and pray he is overplaying AA or KK. Assuming you think you will get one cold caller on a raise the EV is:

calling (and getting 2/3 overcalls): 9/23(3BB) - 14/33(1BB) = .57BB

calling (and getting 3 overcalls): 8/23(4BB) - 14/33(1BB) = .96BB

If you raise and think you will get one cold caller (at Party 1/2 this is even a bit unlikely with how rockish it is) you will get repopped and lose 3BB when you are down and you will get called and win 4 BB when up. EV:

9/23(4BB) - 14/23 (3BB) = -.26BB

Say you do get the two cold callers all the way down. You would win 6BB:

9/23(6BB) - 14/23(3BB) = .52BB

All these assume a sane villain. Knowing that, this is an easy call. Actually, maybe not so easy - but my first blush when I looked at the hand was to call the river. I sat down and plugged at it to see if that made sense. Given all variables it is easly the right decision.

Take care.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
If raising the flop is a mistake it's still clearly +EV, and I'm not even sure it's a mistake. You're a favorite HU against his range right now (you're even a solid favorite if he has AA/KK and still have 40% equity if he has queens) and on this flop you're nearly ALWAYS going to get at least one cold-caller.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree i don't dislike the flop raise at all. FWIW i have his flop equity at 45%. If we get just one cold caller on a board that has likely hit some people we give up alot of value by not jamming the flop. What hands are calling one here that aren't calling two?

[hornsandspurs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I played this hand well up to the turn. When the board paired, I got gun shy. Did I just flat out wuss out, or can an argument be made for calling here?


[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would this be a joke? I am trying to improve my play of draws, and I think I currently throttled my aggression a little too high for these situations. I think some lucky rivers (including this hands) have clouded my view of what a correct play is. You know, good results != good decision.

I think my problem right now is I keep hearing (from SSHE), "Do what you can to win when the pot is big." Against loose, weak players, I think to me that means betting and raising with strong draws. I am probably wrong and, therefore, am seeking advice. So far, it sounds like I have misplayed these quite a bit.

Looks good to me.

grunch

pf-Unless villain is very LAG I fold. I'm not sure CC'ing is a very good option.

flop-If BB, UTG are likely to CC here with lot's of stuff I like the raise, cap.

turn- IF UTG doesn't have a boat, you have ~30% equity. Call and encourage calls behind you.

river--UTG+1 didn't raise, so I think your good here. I like the raise.


Try and include reads next time.

[ QUOTE ]
Others are saying the river raise is standard. I don't like it. Unless UTG+1 is an idiot, you can reduce his likely hands down to just a few choices:

AA - 3 ways
KK - 6 ways
QQ - 3 ways
JJ - 3 ways
88 - 1 way

Of those possiblilies you like 9 of them and hate 7 of them. I would think it unlikely that you would get a lot of cold callers on the river (you got 2/3 - amazing). Most of the time you will drop off those guys. If the villain has QQ, JJ, or 88 you will get repopped on the river.

The river play is anything but "standard". It all depends on the cold callers (assuming the villain is sane). He is betting into you on a straightening, flushed, and possibly boated board. I would give him a double chance of the QQ, JJ, and 88 based on this. (9 ways you like the outcome, 14 you hate it). HU is a slam dunk decision here - you call and pray he is overplaying AA or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG+1 just called UTG's river bet. Don't you think he would have raised a boat?

My Feeling is why raise the river and not the turn. If you are going to call the turn because you were scared of a boat well on the river remember a boat still beats you so why raise. giving him a c/r opportunity.

Just my .02