Abandon Big Pot With Big Slick On The Flop?

ninjaunderwear · #1 11-25-2005, 01:22 AM

MP2 is tight-passive at 16.90/4.09/0.90 after 1,124 hands.
Button is a little loose and a little passive at 28.14/6.77/1.01 after 1,965 hands.

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 folds, UTG+1 calls, 1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 folds, CO checks, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 folds, Button caps, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (25.00 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Button raises, Hero folds?

A pretty big pot, but I definately need to improve to win and I have no idea what my outs are. The BDF would be good, but it looks like I would have to pay alot to see it. My overcards are likely dirty. Do we have any choice but to check-fold here?

Redd · #2 11-25-2005, 02:01 AM

IMO this thread hasn't gotten any replies yet because the necessary play is one of those taboo things that SSHE says not to do; fold the flop despite the pot size. You're at best drawing to a split with the pf-capper, and quite likely much worse off than that.

#3 11-25-2005, 02:39 AM

Hero makes a loose call. I think you'll get others cold calling just because of the size of the pot. Especially if you start the trend.

Back door nut flush. Back door nut str8. +runner, runner 2pr\trips (could still be dead though).

But it wouldn't be a mistake to fold.

silly_monkey · #4 11-25-2005, 03:50 AM

I think I would fold this. MP2 is tight passive and lead into a 6 players when it was capped preflop. Given his limp/call preflop I think he has either a set or a flush draw. It could very easily be two more back to you if you call. About the only cards that look good to me here would be running hearts [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. That being said I fold.

#5 11-25-2005, 05:59 AM

its painful, but i think i call it here, the pot is too big. i want the Jh or Qh on the turn.... trying to run in to something

TomBrooks · #6 11-25-2005, 06:14 AM

Easy call.

Your being offered 15:1 and you only need three outs for that. You have up to 6 outs for your overcards, 1.5 for the BDF to the nuts and maybe .5 for the BDStrt to the nuts. Discount the overcards and you can still call.

SoftcoreRevolt · #7 11-25-2005, 06:14 AM

I'd fold, for passive MP2 to bet here right into the PF Capper I think we are more likely than not seeing him have something really strong, and worth 3 betting.

Now, Button has raised after capping preflop, He's got JJ-AA (With JJ being less likely) pretty clearly since he can't have AKh. That means you are missing more cards in your super longshot to the backdoor straight draw. You'd need at least 2 outs from your overcards to make this call, and I'm really not feeling like they are even worth this much in a pot like this.

It isn't an obvious decision though since the pot is huge, especially if MP2 isn't just passive, he actively hates 3 betting, then we don't have to worry about having to pay a cap to see a turn if we call.

ninjaunderwear · #8 11-25-2005, 09:58 AM

Just a few follow-up questions about calling here.

1. If we're going to call here, would it have been correct to lead out here on the flop?
2. Worst case scenario, we cold-call, three people fold, and it gets 3-bet and capped. If that happens, do we have no choice but to call? How should this possibility have affected our initial decision to call the first two bets?
3. Assuming the flop was capped 3-ways, do we check-fold "unimproved" on the turn (in regards to our backdoors)? If we do hit something like the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], are we still reduced to checking and calling?
4. Assuming the flop was capped 3-ways, if we pair our A or K on the turn, should we donk it and fold if it gets raised and 3-bet behind? Or should we check and fold if it gets bet and raiesd behind?

#9 11-25-2005, 01:12 PM

THis is one time that I would call, the post is huge, Id at least wait until the turn.

nomadtla · #10 11-25-2005, 02:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
2. Worst case scenario, we cold-call, three people fold, and it gets 3-bet and capped. If that happens, do we have no choice but to call? How should this possibility have affected our initial decision to call the first two bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is one of my main concerns. We haven't made a hand with no idea of it's strength if we do make it (except the nut flush). We're not closing the action and judging from the action so far (along with the flop action) we may have to pay a lot to make what may be a second best or split pot hand. I think this is a case of reverse odds. If I could close the action getting 15:1 with this hand on this flop I'd peel every day of the week. But we still have a lot of things that can happen behind our call. This is one of those cases where if you make the call and hit your 2 miracle cards (I don't think a single pair will win this), then you look like a genius. However if you pay for this flop, get a turn that makes you continue but no miracle river then you lose a ton and question why you called here. Discretion is the better part of valor, and I take the cowards way out here.