Variance at Micro Limits

[NateDog]

Variance is just that, variance. Example - 45K hands at a particular level for me, and I am running thru a 1K hand 100+BB downswing. Sounds horrible right? It is. BUT, I came off a 10K hand 4.1BB/100 upswing. Could I have predicted either? No. Is my downsing going to end tomorrow? I don't know. What am I doing to try and end it? Cutting down my tables from 4 to 3, and playing a little tighter in EP. Will this work? Maybe. It could be that I am not a winning player and have just ran well for a while. Type +the +long +run into the search function box for the last month or so, and read what some of the experienced guys around here say is the long run (100K? nope, 200K nope, it's a long time).

If winning every session is the most important thing to you, play ABC WLLH style poker at .5/1, as many tables as your monitors can handle, and it should be a piece of cake. If you want to improve your game, read, post, think, analyze, and learn the game. The results (and money) will follow naturally.

Good luck.

Nate

[Weatherhead03]

Thanks. I remembered someone saying something about this before (maybe you) and I just tried to remember it as clear as I could.

[SomethingClever]

You can run good or bad for 50, 60, even 70,000 hands.

Just focus on your game and the results will come.

Wait, who am I kidding? You should run good all the time!

[ QUOTE ]

vpip_sum 25.5673
pfr_sum 10.2269


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What is the average %flop of the tables you play on. You are almost certainly playing too many hands and/or raising too much. Your vpip is too high for a tight table and your pfr if too high for a loose table.

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fa_raise 4.8438
fa_bet 43.5938


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What are you scared of? These are pretty passive numbers for first action on the flop after a pfr.

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cr_pct_act 0.3225
cr_flop 0
cr_turn 100
cr_river 0


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why are you only check raising the turn?

[POKhER]

I really think you should spend 1hour(Be it a day, or a week) 1Tabling. Playing your standard game but taking reads on opponents.

I set myself this task(I usually 4xtable at 1/2). Had so much more fun.... You know when you see opponents making errors(One guy constantly folded to a raise on the turn) you can abuse it and when it pays off you feel so dam proud.

I had more fun in the 1hr one tabling session than i have 4xtabling and taking down pots here and there but relying on PT for reads(and the occasional showdown when im not in a hand).

Improving your reads IMO, will improve your win rate(Thats if your preflop, Post flop is ok/good).

Maybe you can do it for half an hour? You dont want to get bored and spew chips... That is very bad.

if you spew 2BB... and you run at 1bb/100 you realise that may make up for 200hands break even? Ouch.

Good luck, and $1000 "tuition" sounds painfull. I hope you've won enough and cashed back all the cash you put into poker? With the remains go and buy SSH.

[Vex]

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What is the average %flop of the tables you play on. You are almost certainly playing too many hands and/or raising too much. Your vpip is too high for a tight table and your pfr if too high for a loose table.


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These tables are not tight at all. Loose and passive describes them best. Unfortunately I can't get at my data right now, but later I can look up the averages.

I do know my pfr is way too high; it's almost twice as high as the average and the only ones higher I see in my data have too few hands logged to paint an accurate picture.

So -- I should raise preflop less. I'd like to know more about the whys and wherefores of this. Can you explain it some? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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What are you scared of? These are pretty passive numbers for first action on the flop after a pfr.


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Yes, they are, aren't they? I noticed last night that I do have a tendency to not bet when the flop misses me, even if I'm sitting on two overcards.

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why are you only check raising the turn?

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I noticed that after I posted it, and made a deliberate effort to change that behavior in last night's session.

Generally, these are checkraises for value against opponents who simply don't know what hit them. Usually, I'm out of position, bet a strong hand on the flop, get raised, and just flat call. If the turn is a brick, I checkraise. Almost every single time they call the checkraise and then call my river bet with TPTK. I feel like I'm extracting an extra bet from them by doing this; if I three-bet the flop they'll slow down, and if I call and bet out again they'll slow down.

Last night I checkraised the flop twice just to get a feel for what its effects are. I think that in these games it might be a great tool for getting a free turn card. It seems to me that in these games, a checkraise is such a rare play that it almost always means true strength. I've used the play a lot more often than it has been used against me, and when it is used against me the alarm bells ring.

Maybe I should try the value checkraise on the river a couple times instead of always "springing the trap" on the turn. Maybe I should try checkraising the river on a pure bluff a few times.

[Vex]

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I really think you should spend 1hour(Be it a day, or a week) 1Tabling. Playing your standard game but taking reads on opponents.

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I hope I haven't given the impression that I'm playing completely without reads. I do make and use reads. I had one particularly nice hand in last night's session where I twigged to a guy seeing way too many flops, and I actually made a value bet on the river (after a check-check turn) with nut no-pair, which he called -- with KJ. I actually put him AJ-A9 or so, and the river card was a brick; I was reasonably certain I was ahead when I bet the river.

In another hand, I had KK in early position, raised preflop, got one caller, bet out on an A-high ragged flop, and got flatcalled. I bet the turn for information, and mucked to the raise. The villain had one bet left; I could have reraised and not worried about having to pay another bet, but that would have just been stupid. The villain didn't have enough chips left to be threatening and the turn raise was clearly for value.

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Good luck, and $1000 "tuition" sounds painfull. I hope you've won enough and cashed back all the cash you put into poker? With the remains go and buy SSH.

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Not particularly, considering I put it $50 at a time over a number of months, playing for entertainment and later getting more serious about it. It was all paid back in full when I won my first $30+3 multi-table NL tourney on Ultimate Bet, paying me $3300. I cashed out $3000 of it. Over time I've put some back in at various sites and cashed out a couple times. The fact that I'm in the black over all is due to nice tournament wins, and I have no way to know right now whether that's just luck or if I'm a decent tournament player.

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Yes, they are, aren't they? I noticed last night that I do have a tendency to not bet when the flop misses me, even if I'm sitting on two overcards.


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Be very careful to count all your outs when the flop misses you with two big cards. I wouldnt avocate bluffing into 4 or more players, but a semi bluff when the flop misses you if you have 6-9 outs to top pair or better is fine. It conceals your hand a lot better than calling, rather than hitting raise when an ace comes. Keep in mind you may still have the best hand with just the overcards. They cant fold if you arent betting....

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why are you only check raising the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I noticed that after I posted it, and made a deliberate effort to change that behavior in last night's session.

Generally, these are checkraises for value against opponents who simply don't know what hit them. Usually, I'm out of position, bet a strong hand on the flop, get raised, and just flat call. If the turn is a brick, I checkraise. Almost every single time they call the checkraise and then call my river bet with TPTK. I feel like I'm extracting an extra bet from them by doing this; if I three-bet the flop they'll slow down, and if I call and bet out again they'll slow down.


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Having no check raises on the flop tells me that you might not be protecting your vulnerable made hands enough. It also shows you might be missing a lot of bets. If the field is reasonably large and the pot is OK get the bets in the best way you can, unless you have a monster.


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Maybe I should try checkraising the river on a pure bluff a few times.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are playing in loose games against guys making constant mistakes you dont need to try and buy pots you dont deserve. It might work now and again, but before you know it it could turn into a huge leak. Be very careful with this. Beginners think this is a really clever poker play. Its not.

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In another hand, I had KK in early position, raised preflop, got one caller, bet out on an A-high ragged flop, and got flatcalled. I bet the turn for information, and mucked to the raise. The villain had one bet left; I could have reraised and not worried about having to pay another bet, but that would have just been stupid. The villain didn't have enough chips left to be threatening and the turn raise was clearly for value.


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I'd have stacked him.

[Vex]

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In another hand, I had KK in early position, raised preflop, got one caller, bet out on an A-high ragged flop, and got flatcalled. I bet the turn for information, and mucked to the raise. The villain had one bet left; I could have reraised and not worried about having to pay another bet, but that would have just been stupid. The villain didn't have enough chips left to be threatening and the turn raise was clearly for value.


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I'd have stacked him.

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I probably would have done that automatically and not given the hand a second thought if he had raised the flop. I'd have thought he was just getting his last few chips in with any of a broad range of hands.

The cold call got my attention, made me suspicious.

I'm not in the habit of letting KK go too easily, but I truly was utterly convinced I was on a two-outer in that hand.