Live 2-4: AA on Drawless Board and Top Card Pairs on the Turn

[Dynasty]

Here's a hand I recently heard about. I'm interested in how you would play the turn. More importantly, I want you to tell me if you think this is an easy situation to deal with.

The game is loose and passive.

The hand:

You're dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG and raise. Four players cold-call your raise and both Blinds defend. Seven players see the flop for two bets each. 7 big bets in the pot.

The flop is: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Both Blinds check and you bet. Two players behind you and the Big Blind call. Four players see the turn. 9.5 big bets in the pot.

The turn is: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The Big Blind checked. You bet. A very loose and average, though tending towards passive, opponent raises. The other two players fold and the action is on you.

There are 12.5 big bets in the pot.

What do you want to do?

Is this an easy situation to deal with?

[felson]

I think you have a call down here, and it's a fairly easy decision. You hate getting raised, but the pot is big. Maybe he has a 7 or 99. And you can spike an A on the river. If your opponent only tends towards loose, I would have to look him up. Besides, a Q might not want to knock out the other players on the turn on the drawless board.

[brian0729]

What do you want to do?

I want to fold, but I call and check/call the river. Kick myself for not folding when I get shown a Q and then look at my new hand.

Is this an easy situation to deal with?

For me I think it is. I cant lay this down. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
A very loose and average, though tending towards passive, opponent raises. The other two players fold and the action is on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

You said it right there. If a passive person comes to life, what does he have? Probably at least a Q, if not 77 or 33. True, he might want to slowplay 77 or 33, so I'll stick with the Q. The pot is laying you 12.5:1, and if you believe him you're drawing to two outs which is laying you 22:1. Fold.

[ QUOTE ]
Is this an easy situation to deal with?

[/ QUOTE ]

This depends on the player. If you fall in love with AA to the bitter end, then yes, it's difficult to deal with because you're going to pay the guy off, and he's going to roll over KQ or QJ or Q-whatever, and you're going to rap the table wondering why you just paid off 2 big bets when you knew you were beat...again.

However, if you realize that the two AA are just two pieces of plastic that you control rather than control you, you realize it belongs in the muck. You can feel confident you made the good fold and move on to the next hand.

Garland

[colgin]

Dynasty,

I am going to hate myself when you post and say this is an easy no brainer but here goes. I think this decision is close because of the description of your opponent here. You say that the game is loose and passive and that this particular very loose player tends towards passive. Well against an aggressive opponent you can't lay down because they may try to take the pot away from you on the turn when the top card pairs. Against a totally passive player who is afraid of his/her own shadow it is an easy fold. But is this player that passive or just somewhat passive. Then look at the other factors.

Factors leaning toward folding:

1. The hands you fear, 33, 77 and Qx are all very possible cold calling hands for this very loose player.
2. It is just like a passive player to not raise with top pair on the flop. However, even a passive player will raise a monster on the turn.
3. There are now draws on the board that your opponent might be raising (not that passive types tend to do that).
4. The hand was not heads up on the turn. Your opponent raised into two other opponents who had yet to act. If he/she has less than trips are they suddenly bluffing into a field of loose players.
5. If you are behind you are not getting sufficient odds to draw to your two outs (assuming you are not drawing dead).

Factos leaning towards calling:

1. The pot is large. However, your effective pot odds are not nearly as good since it will cost you another bet on the river to see this hand through. You are getting 13.5:2 which is good but not great.

2. Loose average players in these types of games do crazy things. You will see people show down hands that make no sense. Who knows maybe the person is steaming and decided to take a shot at this large pot.

3. You are now at least heads up.

I can't say I feel good about calling here but my hand only needs to be good around 14% of the time. I haven't built my bankroll in lose passive games by making tough folds headsup, so I say call the turn but I don't feel great about it.

So now Dynasty please tell me the correct answer. Oh,and if a blank falls on the river, do you check-call or bet?

Thanks for the interesting post.

Colgin

[randomchamp]

This happened to me twice tonight. I have AA and there is KK on the board. I paid it off both times, but I have learned my lesson [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] Never again. I did fold aces once tonight when the board was Q J 10 9.

[sfer]

This isn't easy at all, and I think my calling versus folding frequency has a lot to do with my mood and other things that shouldn't been particularly important. But I err on the side of calling, usually.

FWIW, I'm the king of spiking miracle 2 outers on the river.

[Vehn]

This should be a routine fold.

[elindauer]

This is a pretty easy situation to deal with mathematically.

Let's assume the worst case, where the opponent will bet the river when he really has a queen, but check behind when he was bluffing. Let's also assume that when you catch an ace, you win, on average, another 1.5 BBs. Let's call p(bluff) x, which means p(!bluff) = 1-x. Then we can figure the exact probability he must be bluffing for you to consider folding, like this:

when you miss...

44/46

and he's bluffing

x

you win

12.5 BB.

Similarly, when you miss, and he's not bluffing, it'll cost you 3 BB:

44/46*(12.5x - 3(1-x))

and when you catch, you win 14BB...

44/46 * (12.5x - 3(1-x)) + 2/46 (14) = EV

what does x have to be so that calling has 0 EV? Just set this to zero and solve for x. And you thought your middle school algebra class wouldn't be useful in real life. Shame on you.

x ~= .15

So your opponent must be bluffing 15% of the time or less for calling down to be the best play. So this situation is easy to handle, if you know your opponents tendencies. If you don't, it's hard. Folding is the bigger mistake though, so if you're unsure, call down.

Note that if your opponent never bluffs, calling down costs you a lot of money, over two big bets wasted right there. Worse, if he bluffs a lot and you fold, you've given away even more. Finally, note that this situation is very common. What's the point? This decision is worth a lot of money to you if you can get it right consistently, so pay attention to your opponents' tendencies.

Good luck.
Eric

[Warband]

Is it not a 4 outer?
This is not easy for me to deal with.


T.