50/100 hand. Comment please

[Nikla]

Thanks for all responses.

Why are everyone so consumed with the whole "if you call turn you HAVE TO call river" idea?

If we were to put player A on a range of hands, 77, 99, T8s, JJ are distinct possibilities. But so are AJd, KJd, QJd, JTd, KTd QTd, maybe even ATd or A8d if he's frisky. In addition to the top pair + draw hands he could very well have a 2-pair variation such as J9s or 97s in which case I'm correct to peel one of with my redraw.

It's conceivable he has QQ/KK/AA, but I find that remote based on PF action, but you never know. QQ got there on river and even if he held the kings or aces, I still have 1 yahoo behind me left to act who has taken alot of heat.

ggbman: I strongly disagree with your notion that folding river is "at best horrible". I think it's good poker.

[bicyclekick]

I agree there are a lot of hands you can call on hte turn and muck on the river, but this isn't one of them. If you're calling on the turn you better be calling on the river. If you muck on the turn, fine. I still like calling it down but maybe I play too loose.

I don't understand why you'd call the turn and fold the river. There are only 2 cards you want to see and he's going to bet that river like 98% of the time...or did the queen coming make you scared of one more of his possible holdings. Still, you gotta pay this one off.

[Nikla]

What do I beat on river?

[Nomar]

I think this is one of those times where your opponent might think he has the best hand.

You are calling his value bet not his bluff.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
What do I beat on river?

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you beat on the turn then?

[Nikla]

[ QUOTE ]
But so are AJd, KJd, QJd, JTd, KTd QTd, maybe even ATd or A8d if he's frisky.

[/ QUOTE ] Might add acouple more hands, KQd, AKd, AQd even if they are more remote. None the less, the six hands first hands I pointed out are definitely reasonable given his play.

[phish]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for all responses.

Why are everyone so consumed with the whole "if you call turn you HAVE TO call river" idea?

If we were to put player A on a range of hands, 77, 99, T8s, JJ are distinct possibilities. But so are AJd, KJd, QJd, JTd, KTd QTd, maybe even ATd or A8d if he's frisky. In addition to the top pair + draw hands he could very well have a 2-pair variation such as J9s or 97s in which case I'm correct to peel one of with my redraw.

It's conceivable he has QQ/KK/AA, but I find that remote based on PF action, but you never know. QQ got there on river and even if he held the kings or aces, I still have 1 yahoo behind me left to act who has taken alot of heat.

ggbman: I strongly disagree with your notion that folding river is "at best horrible". I think it's good poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's horrible poker. Reason folding the turn may be okay is cause you'd have to pay off 2 more bets otherwise. On the river, it's just one more bet for a HUGE pot.
But another reason why folding too easily with a hand this strong is bad is that your more observent players will now tag you as a 'folder', someone who can cap the flop and still fold on the turn or river. In the future, they'll just keep pushing their good draws on the flop (say a straight and flush draw), where mathematically they're not losing anything w/ two cards to go, and just keep betting when they miss, and will occaisionally be able to manipulate you into making a big mistake. You'd have to make a hell of a lot of good laydowns to make up for that 17 bets you just lost by failing to call the river.
If you're so concerned about saving one bet, you ought to look for it by making a couple more marginal value bets or raises, where if you're wrong, it only costs you one bet. Don't look for that extra bet in decisions where if you're wrong the cost is 17 bets.
And frankly, look at your results honestly. I simply don't think that someone who plays like you do has very good results. You may be a winner, but probably just marginal, unless the game is really good.
Also, read Jennifer Harmon's chapter in SuperSystems 2 on calling on the river. She says essentially what I've said above. And Mason Malmuth has written somewhere that the best players seem to be able/willing to fold hands early, but are willing to take a lot of pressure at the end.

As a general observation, it seems that many beginning players (especially on some poker forums) seem to have the notion that what distinguishes great players are their ability to make the "BIG laydown". Poker is way too complex to easily talk about what makes a player great, but on the subject of laydowns in limit poker, save your laydowns for the obvious ones (against very predictible opponents or w/ weak hands multi-way). When you have an iffy situation at the end of a hand, it's best to just throw your money in.
I remember S&M demostrating in an article a few years back that if you threw your money in everytime with any reasonable hand, you're not really giving up that much vs. playing perfect game theory.

[James282]

Hey Nikla, I don't mind this river fold at all, I don't know if I personally would be able to make it, but I think it is reeeeeeeeeeeeeally close. Like somewhere between 15:1 and 20:1 that you are good. If I didn't have to go get wasted and watch the NCAA games, I'd elaborate further on what I think his range of hands are. Nice hand, in my opinion.
-James

[Nikla]

You can argue image and metagame considerations all you like. But that is a topic not immediately accessible for analysis, and so is hard to quantify. I'm certain you will agree that winning at poker comes down to making better decisions than your opponents. You're right in assuming that no 1 decision or hand happens in a vacuum, but most of the time it is the single isolated decisions that separate the winners from the breakeven players or the losers.

[ QUOTE ]
Poker is way too complex to easily talk about what makes a player great, but on the subject of laydowns in limit poker, save your laydowns for the obvious ones (against very predictible opponents or w/ weak hands multi-way).

[/ QUOTE ] What if I told you this isn't a that tough laydown?

[ QUOTE ]
. I simply don't think that someone who plays like you do has very good results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where is this coming from? I'm very interested in hearing your extensive research for making this claim. I think I do quite well as a pokerplayer. I wouldn't put myself in the expert category, but I'd certainly say I'm bordering on very good.

[Chillout]

Ok so... Why did you post this thread? If you don't doubt your laydown, why ask.